How to Interpret Line Movement and Sharp Action

Identifying Sharp Action

Now let’s take a look at ‘sharp action’ and how it affects line movement. 

Who are the Sharps?

Sharps are professional bettors with extensive knowledge, experience, and resources. They use sophisticated models and analysis to identify value in betting lines. Sharps are often responsible for significant line movements due to the large amounts they wager.

Characteristics of Sharp Action

Sharp action is typically characterised by:

●    Large, strategic bets placed early when lines are first released or just before the game starts

●    Bets placed on less popular games or obscure markets

●    A pattern of consistent winning and moving lines in their favour

How to Distinguish Sharp Money from Public Money

Sharp money can be distinguished from public money by analysing the timing and size of bets, as well as the direction of line movement relative to betting percentages. Tools and resources that track betting activity can also provide insights into where sharp money is being placed

Types of Line Movement

To understand line movements better, let’s discuss the various types of movement and why they occur. 

Steam Moves

Steam moves occur when there is a sudden and significant shift in the betting line due to a large volume of money being placed on a particular side, often by sharp bettors. These moves indicate strong confidence in that side and can lead to rapid adjustments by sportsbooks.

Reverse Line Movement

Reverse line movement happens when the line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. For example, if the majority of bets are on Team A, but the line moves in favour of Team B, it suggests that sharp money is backing Team B, despite the public favouring Team A.

Public vs. Sharp Money Influence

Public money refers to the bets placed by casual or recreational punters, who often wager based on emotions or popular opinion. Sharp money, on the other hand, comes from professional bettors who use data-driven strategies and analysis.

Recognising the difference between public and sharp money can help you interpret line movements more accurately.

Strategies for Betting Based on Line Movement and Sharp Action

Timing Your Bets

Understanding line movement can help in timing your bets for optimal value. Placing bets early can be advantageous if you anticipate line movement, but sometimes waiting until closer to game time when sharp money comes in can be beneficial.

Understanding Key Numbers

Key numbers are the most common margins of victory in sports like football (e.g., 3, 7, 10 points). Recognising the significance of these numbers and how line movement around them can impact betting value is crucial.

Following the Sharps vs. Fading the Public

One strategy is to follow sharp action, betting where the professionals are putting their money. Conversely, fading the public involves betting against the majority of public money, capitalising on potential overreactions and biases.