Sports Betting

Guide

Gambling

Underdog Betting: High Risk, High Reward?

Discover how betting on the underdog works in sports wagering with our guide. Unearth underdog betting tips and cash out with your sportsbook free bets.

Jon Young

Sports Betting Writer

Last Updated: 2024-07-29

Fact checked by:

A. Tzamantanis

Sports Betting Editor

6 minutes read

Image Credits: AP

Table of Contents

Betting on the underdog allows you access to bigger odds, but the wager comes with risks. Over the long term, betting the underdog will lose you more money than you’ll win. In this guide, we’ll show you how to bet the underdogs at the best sports betting sites and make bigger long-term profits.

What is Betting on the Underdog?

Let’s start by showing you how to bet on the underdog. In each game, the bookmaker assigns odds based on the favorite and underdog. They assign an implied probability to each player or team, based on their likelihood of winning. The bookmaker also factors in its own vig to the odds.

For example, imagine an underdog has a 40% chance of winning a game. The betting odds are presented as +140, meaning that you win $140 for a $100 bet, plus your stake.

The favorite is a 52% chance, and the odds are given as -110. That means you win $100 for every $110 placed, plus your original stake.

The bigger the odds, the lower the chance of the underdog winning. A team with odds of winning should win 1 time in every 6 chances. However, upsets do happen, and that’s when you can use an underdog betting system to beat the house.

Pros:

Larger odds than betting on the favorite
More value if you’re willing to do research
Use free bet tokens to try your luck on underdogs
Claim enhanced odds to further boost underdog prices

Cons:

Lower implied probability than favorites
Relies on intense research of stats

How Does Underdog Betting Work?

It’s easy to spot the underdog in a sports betting market. On paper, the underdog has a statistically lower chance of winning a game. That’s reflected in the bookmaker’s odds. The betting site offers more money if the underdog wins but keeping its return low if the favorite wins.

You place an underdog bet in the same way as you would a favorite. Your stake is set at 1 unit. Typically, your return for 1 unit is more than 1. So, with odds of 6/1 you’d receive $6 for every $1 you wager.

There are some immediate telltale signs of an underdog in a bookmaker’s match-up:

Long odds: The underdog will have positive odds to represent their second billing behind the favorite. At odds of 3/1, you win $3 for every $1 wagered.
Relative Team Strength: The underdog will have a weaker team and players. They may be languishing low in the league or be recently promoted.
Recent Form: A player or team is on a long run of poor form. The underdog may even be a traditionally strong player who’s coming back from injury

Underdog Betting by Bet Type

Let’s examine how betting on the underdog works across a range of common bet types.

Moneyline

The moneyline bet is a straight wager on the winner of a two-handed game. The favorite is assigned negative odds, reflecting their status as favorites. The underdog has positive odds so reflect the lower implied probability.

• Underdog Team A: +155 odds
• Favorite Team B: -185 odds

Point Spread

The point spread is a handicap wager where the underdog is assigned a points advantage before the game starts. The favorite must overcome their relative points deficit to “win” the game, or “cover the spread”.
You can compare the difference in odds between a moneyline price and a point spread.

For example, let’s take a look at an NFL game between the Detroit Lions and LA Rams. The Lions have around a 65% chance of winning, with the Rams the underdogs on 39%.

Moneyline odds:

• LA Rams: +155
• Detroit Lions: -185

Now let’s compare the new odds once you’ve assigned a point spread of +3.5/-3.5 points:
• LA Rams +3.5: -110
• Detroit Lions -3.5: -110

The odds for both teams are now equal at -110. With a +3.5-point head-start, the Rams now have parity with the Lions.

Totals (Over/Under)

The Over/Under bet is a wager on the total number of goals or points in a game. It’s irrelevant who wins the game, just the total points.

In our example, the bookmaker goes -110 on both Over 50.5 points and Under 50.5 points. The beauty of the O/U bet is you don’t need to know who the underdog is. However, with a classic big favorite vs underdog match-up, the total points may be higher than normal.

Underdog Betting Tips

Betting on the underdog has its benefits, but don’t start placing wagers without doing some homework. Here are some underdog betting tips to utilize before you open the sportsbook.

Research Stats Before a Game

Bookmakers decide underdog odds based on many factors, including head-to-head results, recent form, and overall team strength. However, it’s important to do your research to find value in the betting markets.

Most online betting sites offer a statistics service where you can browse results and match-ups between players and teams.
Remember too that bookmakers factor in vigorish to all their odds. You won’t always get “true odds” for an underdog, so you must decide whether the price represents value.

Use Free Bet Tokens

A good underdog betting system is to use free bets when you sign up at an online bookmaker. You can claim free bets as a new customer, though the top bookies also provide free bet tokens as part of a VIP program.

Your free bets are a good way to take bigger risks on underdogs with long odds. You can include a few underdogs in a parlay too to increase your potential returns.

Use the Cash Out Tool When Backing Underdogs

The Cash Out tool is invaluable when betting on the underdog. It allows you to settle wagers early without seeing out an entire match. It’s a good way to cash in on the underdog over-performing without sweating it out by watching the favorite come back into the game.

In addition, you can use the Cash Out if you’ve backed a heavy underdog in the futures markets. Perhaps you get long odds on an underdog to win the championship next season. You can cash out early provided your pick is doing surprisingly well in the league.

Jon Young Sports Betting Writer

Jon is an experienced journalist and editor working in the gambling industry for over 17 years. He started life as a football betting blogger before being bitten by the online poker bug, eventually becoming editor of some of the largest gambling and poker publications around, including Gambling Magazine and WPT (World Poker Tour) Poker Magazine.