Boxing
Naoya Inoue vs Sam Goodman Preview: Tips, Odds, and Prediction Dec 24, 2024
Just days after the Christmas cracker between heavyweights Tyson Fury and Oleksandr Usyk, fight fans will be treated to another extravaganza on Boxing Day between Naoya Inoue and Sam Goodman.
Naoya Inoue vs Sam Goodman
Pound-for-pound star Naoya Inoue (28-0, 25KO) makes an historic third defence of his undisputed super-bantamweight championship to mandatory challenger Sam Goodman (19-0, 8KO) on Christmas Eve, Tuesday, December 24, at the Ariake Arena, Tokyo, Japan.
Boxing betting fans can watch all the action from 10am (UK Time), live on Sky Sports.
The Japanese ‘Monster’ first became an undisputed champion when he defeated Briton Paul Butler in a very one-sided beatdown in December 2022.
When Inoue KO’d the unified WBC and WBO super-bantamweight ruler, Stephen Fulton, in July 2023, he became a four-weight world champion, then he added all the other belts on Boxing Day last year to make history as one of only three two-weight undisputed champions in a four-belt era.
He defended his undisputed championship to highly-rated Mexican Luis Nery in May, then again to tough Irishman TJ Doheny in September, and this next fight will be his third defence.
Mexican megastar Canelo became the first boxer in a four-belt ere to record three successful defences of an undisputed championship, in September 2023, but Inoue could be the first-ever to achieve this record within the same calendar year.
The 31-year-old has to win against unbeaten Aussie Sam Goodman to achieve yet another piece of boxing history.
Pre-fight Odds and Win Probability: Inoue Overwhelming Favourite
Naoya Inoue: 1/25 (1.04) – 96,2%
Draw: 40/1 (41) – 2,4%
Sam Goodman: 48/5 (10.6) – 9,4%
*Odds courtesy of 1Win, subject to change
The only three champions to become undisputed over two weights in a four-belt era are American Terence Crawford, Ukrainian Oleksandr Usyk, and Japanese Naoya Inoue.
Main Event Breakdown:
Inoue is a once in a lifetime great. To say that he is sharp and powerful is a gross understatement. He earned his nickname, “The Monster”, by being so freakishly powerful and destructive.
There’s nothing he can’t do. He can box on the front and back foot; on the inside, outside and at mid-range. He has power in both fists and can knock his opponents out in any round. This is almost statistically true, as he has scored KOs in every single round except in the ninth and the 12th.
He can stun opponents with a single shot, but if they are brave enough to get back up, then he is an exceptional finisher, able to kill the fight off moments later. Aside from his power, he is technically brilliant too, a complete fighter like Sugar Ray Robinson.
Almost two-thirds of Inoue’s knockouts have come within the first six rounds, so he is at his most dangerous early in the fight. The below table shows when Naoya has scored his knockouts per round.
Inoue’s KO Count
| Round | Knockouts | Percentage |
| 1 | 3 | 12% |
| 2 | 4 | 16% |
| 3 | 3 | 12% |
| 4 | 1 | 4% |
| 5 | 1 | 4% |
| 6 | 4 | 16% |
| 7 | 2 | 8% |
| 8 | 2 | 8% |
| 9 | 0 | 0% |
| 10 | 3 | 12% |
| 11 | 2 | 8% |
| 12 | 0 | 0% |
In the opposite corner, Sam Goodman is the IBF and WBO #1, so he has more than earned his right to the undisputed title shot.
The undefeated Australian has won WBO Oriental and IBF Inter-Continental titles and a series of successful defences raised his name up to the top of the governing bodies rankings.
He became the Australian featherweight champion in his ninth fight, then stepped up to International title fights straight after.
He has beaten former world champion TJ Doheny, WBA Interim champion Ra’eese Aleem, and world title contender Miguel Flores.
In his last fight, he defeated Thailand’s highly-rated “Rock” Chainoi Worawut via unanimous decision.
He is skilful and sharp and likes to trade at mid-range, relying on his instincts and speed to hit and not get hit. He has an exceptional jab and likes to throw big left and right hooks, but he is a stand-up tall fighter and doesn’t generate a great deal of power without the use of his hips and legs, but it’s his speed that stuns his opponents.
He has quick feet that can get him out of the way of attacks, he’s clearly a very good mover, and he is able to trade at close range if he has to, no stranger to fighting fire with fore when necessary.
The Aussie has ruined the records of five unbeaten opponents, so history suggests he’s a risk.
Tale of the Tape
| Inoue | Stats | Goodman |
| 31 | Age | 26 |
| 28 | Wins | 19 |
| 0 | Losses | 0 |
| 0 | Draws | 0 |
| 25 | KOs | 8 |
| 89.29% | KO Ratio | 42.11% |
| 5ft 5in | Height | 5ft 7 in |
| 67 ½ in | Reach | 67in |
| Orthodox | Stance | Orthodox |
Prediction: Naoya Inoue to Win
When Inoue fights, it’s normally a case of when he wins, not if he wins.
We’ve heard all about how well-rounded his boxing ability is from the earlier comparison to Sugar Ray Robinson, but he is not completely invincible, as Luis Nery demonstrated when he was able to inflict a knockdown in the first round of their fight this year, but he showed a good chin and heart to bounce straight back up and score his own knockdown in the next round.
Goodman will be a very live and credible opponent, his game plan will be to keep it long and take Inoue deep into the contest, preferring the longer fights, but there’s not many out there at 122lbs that can get anywhere to Inoue’s quality and accomplishments. Naoya is going to have to move up to the bigger, bustling featherweight division to really test himself, because he has already cleaned up at super-bantamweight.
Inoue has an average of stopping his opponents within six rounds in world championship fights, so if you’re planning to bet with a top sportsbooks for this match, we predict Inoue to KO Goodman within rounds 1-6.
Fight outcome: Unbeaten Inoue is expected to win at 1/25
Method of victory: Inoue has 91.3% KO ratio in world title contests
Goodman: The challenger is a huge underdog at 48/5
Draw: Inoue has never even come close to being held to a draw, which is reflected in 40/1 odds
Tim has over 27 years experience within the sports industry, working for football clubs Arsenal FC and Millwall FC, and boxing news websites British Boxing News, Boxing Social and Global Boxing News. His boxing articles have been published in Boxing News Magazine, national newspapers, plus many other major news outlets.