Football
Aston Villa vs Brighton Preview: Odds, Tips and Prediction – Dec 30, 2024
Aston Villa and Brighton are on a collision course for Monday night. The hosts are still hopeful of finishing in the European places and, for the first time in a long time, managed to see themselves in the top six at Christmas. Brighton have been somewhat inconsistent, and as such online football betting sites have them priced up as the underdog for this one. SportsBoom breaks down everything you need to know ahead of this clash, including our Aston Villa vs Brighton prediction.
Morgan Rogers and Jhon Duran//Getty Images
Pre-game odds and win probability – Villa the Favourites
Home: 24/25 (1.96) – 49%
Draw: 29/10 (3.9) – 24%
Away: 127/50 (3.54) – 27%
Head-To-Head Record
Last five meetings (Premier League)
05/05/2024: Brighton 1–0 Aston Villa
30/09/2023: Aston Villa 6–1 Brighton
28/05/2023: Aston Villa 2–1 Brighton
13/11/2022: Brighton 1–2 Aston Villa
26/02/2022: Brighton 0–2 Aston Villa
Aston Villa Current Form – WWWLW
Villa have looked really comfortable in big wins this season – most notably that 2-1 win against a struggling Manchester City side. Morgan Rogers is doing brilliant work for Unai Emery’s side, and the confidence he has is incredible. It’s a confidence that the world simply cannot give, know or understand.
Emery has a difficult decision to make as to who he starts up front, Ollie Watkins and Jhon Duran have both been superb and look to have a plethora of goals in them. It’s a great headache to have!
The only concern you have with Villa is they can become rather placid when an opponent grows into the game. They give away a host of chances and against a ruthless side, they could pay the price.
Key Players to Watch
- Jhon Duran: The Colombian attacking ace has one of the best minutes-per-goal ratios in the Premier League this season. He has enjoyed an incredible season at Villa and together with Ollie Watkins have directly influenced the outcome of many games for his club.
- Morgan Rogers: The quality of Rogers is undeniable. He has matured incredibly over the course of this season and has become vital for the success of Aston Villa. His ability and skill are phenomenal, but he’s now controlling the tempo of the game as an added extra!
- Lucas Digne: There are moments when you watch Digne play and think he might be amongst the most underrated left-backs in the league. He is a player with pace, power and a want to get forward, and yet almost simultaneously he is delicate and intricate and able to contribute high up on the pitch as well. He will be important for Villa here.
Aston Villa Team News
Diego Carlos (unknown) and Jacob Ramsey (thigh injury) are not available to Unai Emery here.
Brighton Current Form – DLDLD
Brighton have become rather disappointing in all honesty. They are a good side with a more than capable manager, but their recent performances just don’t suggest that they deserve any of your faith.
They are without a win in their last games, their drop-off has been surprising, to say the least, but horribly disappointing. They are leaking goals at the moment; they can’t keep a clean sheet for jam and until that changes they have little hope of finding a win…
Key Players to Watch
- Lewis Dunk: Dunk has been the ultimate servant for Brighton Hove and Albion. Club captain, tough as nails and a player who never takes any prisoners when defending, he has earned the respect of everyone at the Amex and Brighton will be hopeful he begins to steer his side’s defensive statistics in the right direction.
- Kaoru Mitoma: Mitoma is a player who started the season red-hot but has somewhat begun to cool off here. his attacking outputs are not shooting any lights out, but the quality he possesses and the way in which he is able to turn defence into attack is tremendously valuable to the Seagulls.
- Joao Pedro: For Joao Pedro, it has been the opposite effect. Many pundits didn’t give the striker too many plaudits at the beginning of the season, but he has become the attacking talisman under their new manager Fabian Hurzeler.
Brighton Team News
Danny Welbeck (ankle injury), James Milner (knock) and Jack Hinshelwood (knee injury) are a doubt for this Premier League clash.
Predicted Line-Up
Aston Villa: 4-2-3-1
Martinez, Digne, Torres, Konsa, Cash, Kamara, Onana, Rogers, Tielemans, McGinn, Duran.
Brighton: 4-2-3-1
Verbruggen, Veltman, van Hecke, Dunk, Estupinan, Baleba, Wieffer, Gruda, Rutter, Mitoma, Pedro.
Suggested Bets
Here are our best bets, strategies and Premier League betting platforms for the game between Aston Villa and Brighton.
Aston Villa to Win: Aston Villa should win this. The fall off from Brighton has been cause for concern, but it is more their inability to keep a clean sheet which suggests the hosts claim all three points here. 25/25 (1.96) with 1xBet and Betway
Over 2.5 Goals: Over 2.5 goals seem to be a sensible play here. Villa have an incredible attacking threat and Brighton have a horrible defensive record…take full advantage of the over 2.5 goals market at 14/25 (1.56) with 1xBet
Aston Villa + Over 2.5 Goals: We suggest combining these two betting options with your favourite reliable betting sportsbook for maximum value. You can get as much as 8/5 (2.6) with Betway
Value Bets
Aston Villa to Score in Both Halves: Back the attacking threat of the hosts to extend over both halves. The quality they have on the pitch together with the quality coming off of the bench suggests that we could get behind this betting angle. 8/5 (2.6) with Pinnacle
Morgan Rogers +1 Assist: Rogers is playing in the form of his life at the moment. He has the highest creative metrics for Villa and backing him to find an assist on Monday night seems riddled with value. 3/1 (4.0) with 1xBet.
Aston Villa Win to Nil: The value of this betting strategy is incredible, but we would advise caution. The Seagulls also boast really strong attacking options, but we think the hosts are going to dominate the patterns of play here. 29/10 (3.9) with Pinnacle and Betway
Prediction: Aston Villa Win + Over 2.5 Goals
Brighton have been terribly inconsistent, especially during this busy festive period. At the time of writing, they are without a win in their last five games, and it is difficult to see them turning that around against a confident Aston Villa. Unai Emery has attacking options coming from everywhere – including the bench – and we just think the hosts will overwhelm their placid visitors.
Ryan Liberty is an experienced sports writer whose articles have featured in some of the biggest sports publications in South Africa. With a strong understanding of all major sports and an in-depth understanding of betting, Ryan consistently delivers insightful content. He's also known for his ability to break down complex topics into engaging, reader-friendly pieces.
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