Football
EPL: Brighton vs Crystal Palace Preview: Tips, Odds, and Prediction
With excitement building and anticipation growing ahead of kickoff, Premier League betting fans are already diving into the odds and assessing both teams, hoping to find the best value. For a detailed, in-depth look at the match, be sure to check out our full preview.
In what is one of football’s more obscure rivalries, Brighton and Hove Albion welcome Crystal Palace to the American Express Stadium on Sunday, December 15.
Their rivalry is called the ‘M23 Derby’, due to the motorway that connects the clubs from Sussex to south London. It’s an unusual rivalry being 50 miles apart, but quite apt that they both have birds on their badge, making this match ‘The Seagulls’ vs ‘The Eagles’.
During their storied history, Brighton have won 38% of their shared games, compared to Palace winning 34%, with 28% ending in draws. Those stats show just how close the two sides are, in fact, there’s only three wins in over 100 games separating them.
At the time of writing, Brighton are riding high at seventh place in the Premier League table, while Palace are 10 spots below at 17th, just one above the relegation zone.
The hosts have almost double the points and goals as the visitors, but when it comes to a local derby, form and favourites often go out the window and it becomes a war of attrition.
Pre-Game Odds and Win Probability: Brighton Clear Favourites
Home: 87/100 (1.87) – 53,5%
Draw: 14/5 (3.80) – 26,3%
Away: 59/20 (3.95) – 25,3%
*Odds courtesy of Betway, subject to change*
Head-to-Head Record
Last Five Meetings
03/02/24: Brighton 4-1 Crystal Palace
21/12/23: Crystal Palace 1-1 Brighton
15/12/23: Brighton 1-0 Crystal Palace
11/02/23: Crystal Palace 1-1 Brighton
14/01/22: Wolverhampton 1-1 Ipswich
Brighton: Current Form – DLDWWL
At the time of writing, Brighton have an even number of wins, draws, losses over their last six outings.
Following back-to-back defeats to Liverpool, they boldly bounced back to beat the champions, Manchester City, in a shock 2-1 result at home. They have also triumphed over giants Manchester United, Newcastle and Tottenham this season.
Against Fulham on December 5, they put in a good performance, but a couple of costly mistakes saw them punished 3-1, despite pulling it back to a draw after Dutch goalkeeper Bart Verbruggen gifted Alex Iwobi with a goal after four minutes.
In their latest fixture, they were held to a 2-2 draw away to former champions Leicester City. Goals from Tariq Lamptey (37’) and Yankuba Minteh (79’) meant the Seagulls led the entire game until Jamie Vardy fired back in the 86th minute, then Bobby De Cordova-Reid levelled in stoppage time to deny the visitors the full three points. The late comeback from The Foxes resulted in Brighton dropping down two places in the table from fifth.
Only Southampton (9) have had more errors made leading to goals against than Brighton (6) this season. Goalkeeper Bart Verbruggen is responsible for three of those – the joint-most mistakes made by a player so far in 2023-2025.
Key Players to Watch
- Danny Welbeck – The veteran forward has played in over 350 Premiership games, scoring 75 goals. The 34-year-old’s experience is invaluable, as he has shown this season with six goals already.
- Joao Pedro – Brighton’s no.9 was a reported club-record transfer at £30million in May 2023. The Brazilian has repaid them with 13 goals so far.
- Kaoru Mitoma – Left-winger Mitoma is a creative, skilful attacking player, known for his speed and dribbling ability. The 27-year-old has played over 38 times for Japan.
Brighton Team News
Striker Danny Welbeck and Joao Pedro are both available for selection after recent injury concerns.
Brighton are tracking 18-year-old Motherwell striker, Lennon Miller, but the Scotland Under-21 international has also attracted interest from Liverpool and Newcastle.
Crystal Palace: Current Form – DWDDLD
Palace have only lost once in their last six games, earning seven valuable points. They only managed to find three points in their opening six matches of the season but have now begun to turn the tide.
Austrian Oliver Glasner encourages attacking play and aggression, which is imperative in the competitive Premier League. Their manager also urges the use of width and intensity, which Daniel Munoz and Tyrick Mitchell provide from their wing-back positions.
Midfielder William Hughes has been solid as a rock in midfield in recent performances, but the team are struggling to get those all-important goals that make the difference.
However, they were able to hold the current champions, Man City, to a draw at the weekend, even taking the lead twice against a team with a combined value of £900 million. Daniel Munoz netted early in the fourth minute, after firing in from a smart pass from Will Hughes. After scoring his first for the club last weekend, he now has two in two at Selhurst Park. Haaland equalised in the first half, keeping up his record of always scoring against Palace in the Premier League, but then the hosts took the lead again at 56 minutes when Maxence Lacroix headed past Ortega for their second. But then Rico Lewis evened the score again 12 minutes later to see the two sides share the spoils.
Despite a shaky start, unable to win any of their first eight fixtures of the new season, the south London giants are slowly coming good. It’s just a single defeat for Palace in their last eight outings and are now four points clear of the drop zone.
They are entering into this historic rivalry at the right time because if they met at the beginning of the season then it would have been a very different story.
Key Players to Watch
- Eberechi Eze – England international Eze is one of the Eagles' most creative and attacking players in the team, always a real threat going forward and a handful for any defenders. He’s already notched up 27 goals for his club, one more than his age, and is worthy of his no.10 jumper.
- Jean-Philippe Mateta – Top striker Mateta has netted 27 goals in 100 appearances for Palace since joining officially in 2022 after a loan spell. The 27-year-old competed in the France Olympic Team in the Paris 2024 Games where he finished up as third top scorer of the tournament with seven goals in eight games, collecting a silver medal.
- Marc Guehi – The Ivory Coast centre-back came through the youth system at Chelsea and provides Crystal Palace with strength and stability at the back. The 24-year-old has a maturity beyond his years, which is why he’s been capped 22 times for England after making his way all through the youth teams from under-16s to 21s, representing his country 70 times in total.
Crystal Palace Team News
Adam Wharton has returned to training and should be fit for selection for this fixture, despite not being ready for their last match.
Centre-back Chadi Riad has also resumed training but is uncertain for this fixture, at the time of writing.
Manager Glasner confidently believes his team “are going in the right direction because the performances look quite stable at the moment and on a better level than before”.
Predicted Line-Ups
Brighton: 3-4-2-1
Verbruggen; van Hecke, Dunk, Julio; Adingra, Baleba, Wieffer, Estupinan; O’Riley, Pedro, Mitoma
Crystal Palace: 3-4-2-1
Henderson; Chalobah, Lacroix, Guehi; Munoz, Hughes, Lerma, Mitchell; Sarr, Mateta, Eze
Suggested Bets
If you love betting on football, here are some bets you can place at some of the popular sportsbooks.
Both Teams to Score: Any local derby could see goals at either end, so this is a tempting offering. (17/25 with Betway) (17/25 with 1Win)
Correct Score: The odds for a sensible 2-1 home win look attractive. (7/1 with Betway) (91/10 with 1Win)
Over 4.5 Goals: The last time these rivals played, there wer five goals scored, so this could be worth a try. (15/4 with Betway) (399/100 with 1Win)
Value Bets
Joao Pedro – Anytime Goalscorer: The Brazilian striker to score anytime in the match is always worth a punt. (2/1 with 1Win)
Eberechi Eze – Anytime Goalscorer: Eze is such a handful, that he could come up with a goal in this fixture. (2/1 with 1Win)
First Team to Score – Palace: Palace’s recent form and attacking style of play could potentially see them start fast to net first. (6/4 with Betway) (161/100 with 1Win)
Prediction: Brighton to Win
This derby, at first, appeared to favour the hosts with their lofty location in the league, but recent form may suggest otherwise. For Palace, they are hitting this derby at just the right time – while they are finding stability and Brighton are lacking consistency.
Brighton have averaged 1.65 goals this season, while Palace have 14 in 13. With the Eagles playing well, but failing to capitalise, and the Seagulls starting strongly and having the home advantage, we are predicting a 2-1 win to Brighton.
Palace’s 2-2 draw with Man City shows just how well they have turned their season around, but Brighton went one better with a 2-1 win over the champions, so they appear to possess that slight edge over their rivals this season.
Tim has over 27 years experience within the sports industry, working for football clubs Arsenal FC and Millwall FC, and boxing news websites British Boxing News, Boxing Social and Global Boxing News. His boxing articles have been published in Boxing News Magazine, national newspapers, plus many other major news outlets.