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Southampton vs Aston Villa Preview: Odds, Tips and Prediction

Date: April 12, 2025 Venue: St. Mary's Stadium Kickoff Time: 16:00 With their fate already sealed and seven games left to play, Southampton only have pride to play for as they prepare for life in the Championship next season. Having managed just two victories from 31 matches, the Saints have not been able to reach the standards and demands of the Premier League.

Marc Strydom
Marc Strydom

Last Updated: 2025-04-09

Chad Nagel

7 minutes read

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Nathan Wood and Ollie Watkins

Nathan Wood and Ollie Watkins//Getty Images

In contrast, their opponents, Aston Villa, have been playing extremely well in both Cup competitions and domestically in the league. Unai Emery’s tactical identity, expert organisation, and attention to detail have seen Villa’s rise from a mid-table team to competing for the Champions League. Such contrasting form is often mirrored in shifts across Premier League betting markets, where team momentum plays a major role in pricing.

Pre-Game Odds & Win Probability

  1. HOME: 4/1 (5.00) – 20%

  2. DRAW: 16/5 (4.40) – 23.8%

  3. AWAY: 63/100 (1.63) – 61.3%

  4. Odds courtesy of Betway, subject to change.

Head-To-Head Record

Last five meetings (Premier League)

  1. 07/12/2024: Aston Villa 1-0 Southampton 

  2. 21/01/2023: Southampton 0-1 Aston Villa

  3. 16/09/2022: Aston Villa 1-0 Southampton 

  4. 05/03/2022: Aston Villa 4-0 Southampton

  5. 05/11/2021: Southampton 1-0 Aston Villa

Southampton Current Form – LLLDL

Southampton’s problem goes far beyond the pitch. Their dismal record of 2 wins, 4 draws, and 25 defeats paints a grim picture of their campaign thus far. Despite the draw against Crystal Palace, the team's home form has been particularly concerning, with just one win and two draws from 15 matches at Saint Mary's. 

Their goal difference of -51 (23 scored, 74 conceded) further underlines the magnitude of their struggles in both attack and defence. Looking at how the last five matches have played out, it will take something special to come away with a positive result here against an in-form Villa outfit.

Key Players To Watch

  • Paul Onuachu: Onuachu is highly effective in aerial duels, making him a significant threat during set pieces and crosses. Despite his height, Onuachu is deceptively fast and possesses good dribbling skills, often surprising defenders with his ability to manoeuvre past them. He has a straightforward playing style, frequently positioning himself to receive flighted deliveries and capitalize on loose balls in the penalty area.
  • Tyler Dibling: Dibling excels at dribbling, using his quick footwork and agility to glide past defenders. His ability to maintain close control of the ball in tight spaces makes him a constant threat. Despite his young age, Dibling shows a level of composure and maturity beyond his years, often making smart decisions under pressure. 
  • Joe Aribo: Aribo can play in various midfield roles, including central midfield, attacking midfield, and wide positions. This flexibility allows him to adapt to different tactical setups while creating scoring opportunities with precise passes and progressive forward play. He prefers short, neat passes and keeps possession well.

Southampton Team News

Ryan Fraser is recovering from a calf injury, and with no timeline on his return to action, a place on the bench is only expected once fit.

William Smallbone has been sidelined with a groin injury. The midfielder has missed two matches with a groin issue and seems to be targeting a return for an April 12 clash with Aston Villa.

Flynn Downs is serving his suspension after receiving his 10th yellow card of the season against Crystal Palace and will be unavailable for the clash against Aston Villa.

Aston Villa Current Form – WLWWW

Unai Emery's tactical acumen has been evident throughout the season, with the Spanish coach implementing a fluid, possession-based style that has caught many opponents off guard. His ability to adapt his formation and tactics to suit different opponents has been crucial to Villa's success, and they will be looking to continue their fine form against a struggling Southampton side.

The Villans showed class in their 2-1 victory against Chelsea, proving they have what it takes to compete at the highest level. However, they failed to carry that momentum into their next match against Crystal Palace and were humbled by a 4-1 defeat. Since that defeat, Villa have recorded three consecutive victories, scoring six goals, conceding one, and keeping two clean sheets. Furthermore, their away form has been noteworthy, which will give them added confidence to go on and extend their unbeaten run with another valuable three points. 

Key Players To Watch

  • Ollie Watkins: Watkins is a well-rounded and dynamic striker known for his intelligent movement, clinical finishing, speed, and versatility. He combines his speed with physical strength, enabling him to hold off defenders and win aerial duels. This physical presence makes him effective in various attacking scenarios. His composure and accuracy in front of goal make him a reliable goal scorer for his team.
  • Morgan Rogers: Rogers is exceptionally quick and agile, allowing him to make rapid transitions from defence to attack. His ability to change direction swiftly makes him difficult to mark. He has an aggressive, direct style of play, often driving at defenders and creating scoring opportunities through his powerful runs. While he primarily plays on the left wing, Rogers is also effective in central areas, making him a flexible option in various attacking roles. 
  • Marco Asensio: Asensio's technical skills are exceptional, allowing him to maintain close control of the ball and execute intricate dribbles. He can play in multiple positions, including as a right winger, attacking midfielder, or left-sided attacker, making him a flexible option for his team. His vision enables him to create scoring opportunities for his teammates with precise passes and clever playmaking.

Aston Villa Team News

Aston Villa has been given a huge injury boost with Ross Barkley ready to return after a three-month absence with a knee injury. 

Leon Bailey missed the last three league matches with an undisclosed injury, although it’s not that serious, and he could be available for selection against Southampton.

Predicted Line-Up

  1. Southampton: 4-2-3-1

    A. Ramsdale, K. Walker-Peters, J. Bednarek, T. Harwood-Bellis, R. Manning, L. Ugochukwu, J. Aribo, T. Dibling, M. Fernandes, K. Sulemana, C. Archer,

  2. Aston Villa: 4-2-3-1

    E. Martínez, A. García, A. Disasi, T. Mings, I. Maatsen, B. Kamara, Y. Tielemans, D. Malen, J. Ramsey, M. Rashford, O. Watkins 

Suggested Bets

Many leading sportsbooks feature sign-up bonuses that can provide early value when placing your first wagers.

  1. Aston Villa to win: Aston Villa will take control of proceedings and assert their dominance, allowing them to take advantage of the struggles Southampton have been experiencing. 63/100 (1.63) with Betway.

  2. Anytime Goalscorer – Ollie Watkins: Watkins is a clinical striker who has the ability to score from various positions on the field. His speed and intelligent movement make him a constant threat in the final third, allowing him to pounce on any opportunities in front of goal.  11/10 (2.1) with BetWinner.

  3. Over 3 Goals: Villa has many quality players who know how to find the back of the net, and with Southampton’s defensive struggles, they anticipate a high-scoring game. Get on at 49/50 (1.98) with Stake.

Value Bets

These selections reflect trends also highlighted in expert-led football betting tips and predictions from across the Premier League.

  1. First Goal Time (From 11-20 minutes): Southampton know they are already relegated, which may have a psychological effect on their game. Villa will not hold back and will attack from the first whistle to gain an early advantage.15/4 (4.75) with 1Win. 

  2. Anytime Goalscorer – Youri Tielemans: Tielemans is a player who loves to get forward, and even though he is the creative link in the team, he also knows how to score goals. Get on at 5/1 (6.0) with 1xBet. 

  3. First Half – Aston Villa Total Over 1.5: Expect Villa to take advantage of Southampton’s situation and go into half-time with a healthy lead. 59/20 (3.95) with Bettilt.

Prediction: Aston Villa to Win

The stark contrast in form and league positions between Southampton and Aston Villa makes an away win the most likely outcome in this fixture. Villa's impressive recent performances, coupled with Southampton's struggles, suggest that Unai Emery's side should have too much quality for the hosts. Those evaluating this matchup can explore insights from trusted betting sites.

Marc Strydom
Marc StrydomSports Writer

Marc Strydom is a dedicated sports lover with a wealth of experience in the sports betting industry, mostly as a Chief Editor of a sports betting publication in South Africa. While Marc’s enthusiasm covers many sports, football and NBA are his favourites. His articles feature on multiple top-rated platforms, covering a wide range of topics.

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