Football
EPL: West Ham vs Brighton Preview: Tips, Odds, and Prediction
With excitement building and anticipation growing ahead of kickoff, Premier League betting fans are already diving into the odds and assessing both teams, hoping to find the best value. For a detailed, in-depth look at the match, be sure to check out our full preview.
West Ham United v Brighton & Hove Albion - Premier League//Getty Images
West Ham boss Julen Lopetegui welcomes Fabian Hürzeler’s Brighton & Hove Albion to their 62,500-capacity London Stadium just four days before Christmas.
Over the 61 times these clubs have played each other, they have drawn 21 times, which reveals how closely matched the sides are. Brighton have just edged the matches with 21 wins over West Ham’s 19, but that too shows how even their rivalry has been over the past two centuries.
In recent years, Brighton have dominated their rivalry, scoring 10 goals during their last five games, beating The Hammers in three of those fixtures, who only managed to score four times back. Let’s delve a little deeper into this festive fixture, taking place just three days before Christmas Eve.
Pre-Game Odds and Win Probability: Bookies Fancy Brighton
Home: 2/1 (3.00) – 57,8%
Draw: 27/10 (3.70) – 23,8%
Away: 123/100 (2.23) – 23,3%
*Odds courtesy of Betway, subject to change
Head-to-Head Record
Last Five Meetings
02/01/24: West Ham 0-0 Brighton
26/08/23: Brighton 1-3 West Ham
04/03/23: Brighton 4-0 West Ham
21/08/22: West Ham 0-2 Brighton
22/05/22: Brighton 3-1 West Ham
West Ham: Current Form – WLLWDL
At the time of writing, West Ham had conceded eight goals in their last two losses – three away to Leicester and five at home to Arsenal.
In the last five matches where they have conceded, they let in an average of 3.2 goals per game, which is a worryingly high number.
The Hammers had collected only 15 points from their first 14 matches, putting them just four places above the drop zone. Their precarious positioning has resulted in their manager Julen Lopetegui being taunted by fans after the last loss to Leicester with chants of: ‘You’re getting sacked in the morning!’
However, a vital 2-1 win over Wolves on a wet and windy Monday night, December 9, saw them bag a valuable three points at home to climb nine points clear of relegation.
Key Players to Watch
- Jarrod Bowen – England International Bowen is a quick, direct, energetic forward known for his speed, movement and finishing, which has seen him score 47 goals in 174 games for the Hammers.
- Aaron Wan-Bissaka – The 27-year-old right-back is a graduate of his local club, Crystal Palace, named Player of the Year for the Eagles in his first full season. That prompted a £50 million move to Man United in 2019, where he won an FA Cup and League Cup. His pace and tackling ability are what make the Londoner one of the best players in the squad.
- Mohammed Kudus – Ghanaian International Mohamed Kudus joined the Hammers from Ajax last season, playing 42 games so far for the east London club, which is two less than his caps for his country.
West Ham Team News
On Saturday, December 7, news broke of West Ham striker Michail Antonio involved in “a road traffic collision involving one car”. Thankfully, it was reported that he was “conscious and communicating” while “under close supervision at a central London hospital”. The Essex County Fire and Rescue Service attended the scene on Saturday afternoon to release a man trapped in his car, and it has since been updated that he has undergone surgery for a lower limb fracture.
English actors Ray Winstone, Danny Dyer and Tom Davis are all well-known West Ham supporter, but did you know that former U.S. President Barack Obama is also a fan, after attending a game at Upton Park in 2003.
Brighton: Current Form – DLDWWL
Brighton have recorded a brace of wins, draws, and losses over their last six outings, at the time of writing.
On November 9, Brighton beat the champions, Man City, in a shock 2-1 result at home. They have also triumphed over giants Man United, Newcastle and Tottenham already this season.
In both of their last games, they gave away costly mistakes to deny themselves points on the board. Despite leading 2-0 against Leicester, they either took their foot off the gas or ran out of steam as Jamie Vardy inspired The Foxes to score two goals back and salvage a point. A point away from home is always well received, but not so much when it should have been a guaranteed three.
In the match prior to that, away to Fulham, more mistakes cost them the result, when they really should have won. In fact, Brighton would be second in the league table behind Liverpool if not for the all the leads they have given away so far this season.
Key Players To Watch
- Danny Welbeck – The veteran forward has played in over 350 Premiership games, scoring 75 goals. The 34-year-old’s experience is invaluable, as he has shown this season with six goals already. An obscure fact is that Welbeck has scored the most Premier League goals – 73 – without aver scoring over 10 a season.
- Joao Pedro – Brighton’s no.9 was a reported club-record transfer at £30million – although undisclosed – in May 2023. The Brazilian has repaid them with 13 goals so far.
- Kaoru Mitoma – Left-winger Mitoma is a creative, skilful attacking player, known for his speed and dribbling ability. The 27-year-old has played over 38 times for his country, Japan.
Brighton Team News
Brighton fans were displeased with the way their team threw away their 2-0 lead to Leicester, some accusing the players of “coasting” or not being fit enough. They have now lost more points from leading positions than any other Premiership side.
On Wednesday, December 11, Chief Executive Paul Barber accepted the ceremonial honour of The Freedom of the City for his club, in recognition of their sporting achievements and outstanding contribution to the city of Brighton.
Midfielder Diego Gomez has signed for an undisclosed fee from Inter Miami and will join the club on January 1, 2025.
Predicted Line-Ups
West Ham: 4-2-3-1
Fabianski; Wan-Bissake, Mavropanos, Kilman, Emerson; Alvarez, Soucek; Kudus, Soler, Summerville; Bowen
Brighton: 3-4-2-1
Verbruggen; van Hecke, Dunk, Julio; Adingra, Baleba, Wieffer, Estupinan; O’Riley, Mitoma; Pedro
Suggested Bets
If you love betting on football, here are some bets you can place at some of the popular sportsbooks.
Correct Score: Brighton to bag a realistic 2-1 away win could be worth a punt. (43/5 with Betway) (97/10 with 1Win)
Brighton to Win: As the more dominant of the two teams in their recent history, Brighton to win could be a sensible bet. (6/5 with Betway) (2.22 with 1Win)
Over 3.5 Goals: Four goals have been scored in three of their last five meetings. (13/10 with Betway) (137/100 with 1Win)
Value Bets
Joao Pedro – Anytime Goalscorer: The Brazilian striker to score anytime in the match is always worth a punt. (2/1 forecast odds)
Jarrod Bowen – Anytime Goalscorer: As one of West Ham’s top players, Bowen could well pop up with a goal. (24/10 forecast odds)
First Team to Score – West Ham: Brighton are the away team and regularly making mistakes, the hosts to score first could be tempting. (121/100 with 1Win)
Prediction: Brighton to Win
West Ham have only managed to win one from their last 14 meetings with Brighton, so the Seagulls have become somewhat of a bogey team for the Hammers. Ever since West Ham trounced Brighton 6-0 in the Championship back in 2012, they have only been able to beat them once in the Premier League since then, and it took over 10 years to get that elusive victory.
At the time of writing, Brighton have conceded in all of their last six fixtures, with a tendency to make costly mistakes, miss important chances, and throw away leads, and, against Leicester, they were accused of taking their foot off the gas.
West Ham have not enjoyed a consistent season yet, but with Brighton making mistakes and throwing away their leads, the home team have every chance of finding the net against the visitors.
However, we are predicting Brighton to win 2-1.
Tim has over 27 years experience within the sports industry, working for football clubs Arsenal FC and Millwall FC, and boxing news websites British Boxing News, Boxing Social and Global Boxing News. His boxing articles have been published in Boxing News Magazine, national newspapers, plus many other major news outlets.