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France vs Croatia Preview: Odds, Tips and Prediction

Date: Saturday, March 23, 2025 Kickoff Time: 20:45 GMT Venue: Stade de France, Saint-Denis SportsBoom previews the UEFA Nations League quarter-final second leg between France and Croatia at Stade de France on Saturday, March 23, 2025. With a semi-final spot on the line, this match promises an intense battle between the 2018 World Cup finalists. If you're looking to bet on football games, check out the best football betting sites for promotions and welcome bonuses.

Joshua Gaillard
J.G.

Last Updated: 2025-03-20

Chad Nagel

5 minutes read

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Mbappe Kylian forward of France

Mbappe Kylian//Getty Images

Pre-Game Outlook: France's Firepower vs Croatia's Resilience

Les Bleus come into this match in stellar form, boasting a squad brimming with world-class talent. Under Didier Deschamps, France has found a harmonious balance between explosive attacks and disciplined defence. The return of Kylian Mbappe, who has been confirmed as captain for this fixture, adds significant firepower to their frontline. 

Croatia, known for their tournament tenacity, will rely heavily on their experienced midfield trio of Luka Modric, Marcelo Brozovic, and Mateo Kovacic to control the game's tempo. Despite lacking France's attacking depth, Zlatko Dalic's side is well-organized and poses a threat on the counter. Maintaining defensive solidity is always their gameplan and it has held up in the past to withstand France's offensive prowess.

Pre-Game Odds and Win Probability

  1. France: 13/10 (2.30) – 43.5%

  2. Draw: 23/10 (3.30) – 23.5%

  3. Croatia: 11/4 (3.75) – 33%

  4. *Odds courtesy of Betway, subject to change. 

Head-to-Head Record

  1. 13/06/22: France 0-1 Croatia

  2. 06/06/22: Croatia 1-1 France

  3. 14/10/20: Croatia 1-2 France

  4. 08/09/20: France 4-2 Croatia

  5. 15/07/18: France 4-2 Croatia (World Cup Final)

France: Current Form – WDWWW

France has been in sublime form, something they have maintained for a long period of time with this squad. They have secured four wins and a draw in their last five matches. The solid 3-1 triumph over Austria, yet again, showcased the French attacking strength, with Kylian Mbappé, Antoine Griezmann, and Marcus Thuram all getting on the scoresheet. Prior to that, Les Bleus dismantled Scotland 4-0, with Ousmane Dembele delivering a standout performance.

Beyond their attacking firepower, Didier Deschamps’ side has been so strong defensively – what we have come to expect from the former defensive midfielder – conceding just three goals in their last five outings. Experience and youth continue to work in their favour, with Warren Zaïre-Emery and Bradley Barcola injecting fresh energy. The return of Mbappe to the side bolsters France's attack and they are expected to be even more dynamic.

Key Players to Watch

  • Kylian Mbappe: if you’re watching football, you know Mbappe is going to bring his A-game, and if, rather when, he does, there’s nobody that can stop him.
  • Antoine Griezmann: The creative maestro seamlessly links midfield and attack, and even when he plays almost as a second striker, he’s hard for the opposition to track.
  • Aurelien Tchouameni: His defensive prowess in the centre of the park and ability to dictate play for the rest of his side comes second to none for Les Blues now.

France Team News

Kylian Mbappé returns to the squad after missing the previous two international breaks, adding significant strength to the attack. However, Marcus Thuram has been ruled out due to a recurring ankle injury, reducing Deschamps' options upfront.

Croatia: Current Form – DLDWW

Croatia’s form has been a roller coaster – two wins, two draws, and a loss in their last five fixtures. A much-needed 1-0 victory over Poland was a confidence boost, but it came after a frustrating 1-1 draw against tough opposition in Italy, and a goalless stalemate with Portugal compounded the irritation. Their 2-1 defeat to Spain in the Nations League group stage exposed the fact that they can’t always rely on a defensive structure if they don’t have the ball. But against France, that should be addressed.

Zlatko Dalic’s side remains disciplined, that we know. An ever-present reliance is evident on experienced the midfield trio of Luka Modric, Marcelo Brozovic, and Mateo Kovacic to control the game's tempo. But their lack of consistent goal-scoring output could be a concern, with Andrej Kramaric and Marko Livaja needing to be more clinical in front of goal. Croatia’s defensive organization has held up well in past encounters with France.

Key Players to Watch

  • Luka Modric: The evergreen playmaker who remains the heartbeat of Croatia’s midfield will never be overlooked. While he may start on the bench, he will make a feature and is going to be a game-changer in any capacity.
  • Josko Gvardiol: The Manchester City wingback has been a stalwart since he started playing for the nation as a teenager and is tasked with neutralizing France's attacking threats, but more importantly is known for creating some of those threats at the top end of the pitch as well.
  • Andrej Kramaric: A versatile forward capable of exploiting defensive lapses will keep the French boys on their toes for the full 90 minutes and additional time as he holds one of the stronger gas tanks on the pitch.

Croatia Team News

Luka Sucic has been ruled out due to injury, a significant setback for Croatia's midfield options. However, veterans like Ivan Perisic and Modric are fit and expected to play pivotal roles in this high-stakes encounter.

Predicted Line-Up

  1. France; 4-2-3-1: Maignan; Koundé, Saliba, Upamecano, Theo Hernandez; Tchouaméni, Camavinga; Dembélé, Griezmann, Mbappé; Kolo Muani.

  2. Croatia; 4-3-3: Livaković; Juranović, Gvardiol, Šutalo, Perišić; Modrić, Brozović, Kovačić; Majer, Kramarić, Oršić.

Suggested Bets

The UEFA Nations League has become such a big event and can lead to odds not reflecting some passionate underdogs, but focusing on key trends can help find value bets. Understanding key trends and applying betting strategies can help identify value bets in these unpredictable matchups.

  1. Both Teams to Score (Yes): The head-to-heads are a tell-tale sign that suggests a high-scoring affair. (7/10 with Betwinner) (15/20 with 1Win)

  2. Over 2.5 Goals: Given the attacking quality both sides possess, we’re confident in at least three goals scored. (13/20 with BetWinner) (6/10 with 1Win)

Value Bets

  1. Correct Score (2-1 France): While it is closely contested, Les Bleus' depth and form give them the edge. (5/1 with Betway) (6/1 with Betandyou)

  2. Kylian Mbappé Anytime Goalscorer: The returning captain is always poised to make a significant impact in any game he features in. (13/10 with Betandyou) (15/10 with 888Starz)

Prediction: France to Win & Both Teams to Score (Yes)

Croatia's resilience will pose challenges to a star-studded Deschamps side, but France's attacking depth and the boost from Mbappe's return make them favourites. Expect a competitive match that will be exciting for the viewer and have a host of tactical battles on either end of the pitch. With both teams highly likely to find the back of the net, ultimately, France should prevail. With goals, there’s value and bettors will find strong markets available with leading online betting sites.

Joshua Gaillard
Joshua Gaillard Sports Writer

Joshua Gaillard is a freelance editor and dedicated Arsenal fan, known for creating fact-based, insightful content. His work, featured on top South African websites, blends analysis with engaging storytelling for clear, impactful articles.

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