Football
Germany vs Italy Preview: Odds, Tips and Prediction
Date: March 23, 2025 Venue: Signal Iduna Park Kickoff Time: 21:45 Germany will return the favour and play hosts when they welcome Italy for the return leg of this exciting encounter. These two nations have been battling against each other for many years and after the first meeting at the iconic San Siro, this will be another footballing spectacle to witness with a spot in the semi-finals on the line. If you’re a football fanatic looking to cash in on some favourable odds, check out the best football betting sites!
Julian Nagelsmann, Head Coach of Germany//Getty Images
On March 23, at Signal Iduna Park, the atmosphere will match the intensity between these two very successful footballing nations. There is no room for error at this stage of the tournament and with all the quality on display, individual brilliance is likely to play a part in who navigates their way into the last four or who will cross the white lines for the last time in this major tournament.
Pre-Game Odds & Win Probability
HOME: 33/20 (2.65) – 37.7%
DRAW: 9/4 (3.25) – 30.8%
AWAY: 7/4 (2.75) – 36.4%
Odds courtesy of 1Win, subject to change.
Head-To-Head Record
Last five meetings (all competitions)
14/06/2022: Germany 5-2 Italy
04/06/2022: Italy 1-1 Germany
15/11/2016: Italy 0-0 Germany
02/07/2016: Germany 1 (6) - 1 (5) Italy
29/03/2016: Germany 4-1 Italy
Germany Current Form – DWWWD
Germany has returned to their best and has been producing exceptional results under the guidance of Julian Nagelsmann. They navigated their way through League A Group 3 unbeaten, regaining their fear factor and placing them to be one of the favourites to go all the way, keeping their ambitions of securing their first UEFA Nations League title alive.
They have scored 13 goals, conceded four, and kept two clean sheets during this time, showcasing their remarkable attacking prowess and defensive solidity. The Germans continue to build their game around high-pressing, possession-based, tactical football which has not only seen them dominate but has been easy on the eye and a joy to watch.
Key Players To Watch
- Joshua Kimmich: Kimmich has the ability to contribute both defensively and offensively providing balance to the team. He can stabilise the midfield while also supporting the attack. He is an excellent passer and can create opportunities from deep positions. His vision and ability to deliver precise passes make him an important part of this German squad.
- Jamal Musiala: Musiala is renowned for his close control and dribbling ability. His nickname "Bambi" reflects his agility and smooth movement on the field. His ability to unlock defences with his creativity and flair makes him a crucial asset in breaking down stubborn opponents. The Bayern Munich attacking midfielder is seen as a key figure for the future of German football. His rapid rise and consistent performances make him a cornerstone for the team's long-term plans.
- Leroy Sane: Sane is incredibly fast, making him a constant threat on the wings. His acceleration allows him to beat defenders and create space for himself and his teammates in attack. Sane has a keen eye for goal and can score from various positions. He has a gifted left foot, and he often cuts inside from the right wing to shoot, which has seen him score many goals for both club and country.
Germany Team News
Benjamin Hendricks is still sidelined and recovering from an Achilles tendon injury he suffered in December. In the midfield, Felix Nmecha is out with a knee injury, Aleksandar Pavlovic has an illness called mononucleosis and will sit this one out, along with Florian Wirtz, who picked up an ankle injury against Werder Bremen in the Bundesliga. Kai Havertz is another absentee with a hamstring injury and is set to return in June 2025.
Italy Current Form – LWWDW
Italy, with a blend of seasoned professionals and youthful energy, have been performing at a high level and maintaining their high standards. Before the disappointing 3-1 defeat to France at home, the Azzurri were in outstanding form with four victories and two draws.
Victories against Belgium and France, two nations that possess undeniable quality, showcased Italy’s astute tactical approach and collective strength. Coach Luciano Spalletti has increased focus on midfield control, defensive discipline, and quick transitions from defence to attack which has seen his side open teams up and score goals.
Key Players To Watch
- Gianluigi Donnarumma: Donnarumma is widely regarded as one of the best goalkeepers in the world known for his exceptional reflexes, commanding presence, and ability to play out from the back. Despite his young age, he has already amassed significant experience at both club and international levels. His performances at Euro 2020, where he was named Player of the Tournament, highlight his ability to perform on the biggest stage.
- Nicolo Barella: Barella is a dynamic and energetic midfielder known for his box-to-box capabilities, technical skills, and tactical intelligence. He provides stability in the midfield with his defensive contributions and ability to retain possession. His presence helps balance the team.
- Mateo Retegui: Retegui is a promising forward known for his physical presence, goal-scoring instincts, and versatility. The Atalanta forward has a natural ability to find the back of the net. His sharp reactions and excellent positioning allow him to capitalise on scoring opportunities, whether through headers, close-range finishes, or powerful strikes from outside the box.
Italy Team News
Inter Milan’s Federico Dimarco is the only notable absentee from Spalletti’s set-up. The left-back has been sidelined due to a muscular injury and is expected to make a return after the international break.
Predicted Line-Up
Germany; 4-2-3-1: A. Nubel, J. Kimmich, A. Rudiger, J. Tah, M. Mittelstadt, P. Gross, L. Goretzka, A. Stiller, J. Musiala, J. Burkardt, L. Sane
Italy; 3-5-1-1: G. Donnarumma, G. Di Lorenzo, A. Buongiorno, A. Bastoni, M. Ruggeri, S. Tonali, N. Rovella, C. Casadei, D. Frattesi, N. Barella, M. Retegui
Suggested Bets
Thinking of placing a bet on the game? Make sure to pick a sportsbook with a rewarding welcome bonus to get the most out of your betting journey.
Germany to Win: Despite the extensive injury list, Germany can still pose a threat. With the home-ground advantage, back Nagelsmann and his men to claim the victory on the night. Betting at 33/20 (2.65) with Betway.
Both Teams To Score (Yes): This fixture has individual brilliance scattered all over it, meaning there will be opportunities to score from both sides. Get on at 117/100 (2.173) with 1xBet.
First Team To Score: Germany attacks with real intent. Having speedy skilful players who can go past defenders in one-on-one battles will ask questions of the Italian defence and set pieces is another avenue they can turn to in finding the back of the net. Get stuck in at 109/100 (2.090) with Pinnacle.
Value Bets
With the right sports betting strategies and tips, you can make smarter bets and cut down the bookmaker’s advantage.
Germany Winning Margin: The Germans will likely dominate possession which will get their more influential players to impact the game – anticipate Germany to outscore their opponents by 1 goal. Get on at 33/10 (4.30) with Stake.
Halftime/Fulltime (Draw/Germany): This will be a tactical battle between both teams in the first half, leaving no room for error. As the game starts to open up, Germany has the more experienced players to manage the game which will work in Nagelsmann's favour. Get stuck in at 27/5 (6.40) on Betway.
Last Goalscorer: Jonathan Burkardt has been on fire in the Bundesliga for Mainz this season. His ability to find space and be clinical in the face of goal puts him in a strong position to have the last say. Get on at 13/2 (7.50) with N1Bet.
Prediction: Germany to Win
Germany will welcome this challenge with only one thing on their minds and that is to win. It will probably come down to individual quality to decide the game which falls in favour of Julian Nagelsmann and his men. The quality and experience Germany has in the squad, especially in big-game situations, exceeds Italy’s which will see Die Mannschaft advance into the last four.
Those analyzing the betting landscape can find valuable insights through online betting sites, which provide the latest odds and expert analysis on this highly anticipated clash.
Marc Strydom is a dedicated sports lover with a wealth of experience in the sports betting industry, mostly as a Chief Editor of a sports betting publication in South Africa. While Marc’s enthusiasm covers many sports, football and NBA are his favourites. His articles feature on multiple top-rated platforms, covering a wide range of topics.
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