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Spain vs Netherlands Preview: Odds, Tips and Prediction

Date: Saturday, March 22, 2025 Kickoff Time: 00:30 GMT Venue: Estadio de Mestalla, Valencia SportsBoom previews the UEFA Nations League quarter-final between Spain and the Netherlands at Estadio de Mastella on Saturday, March 22, 2025. With both teams battling for a place in the semi-finals, this fixture could shape the path to the tournament’s climax. If you're looking to bet on football games, check out the best football betting sites for promotions and enhanced odds.

Joshua Gaillard
J.G.

Last Updated: 2025-03-20

Chad Nagel

5 minutes read

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Marco Asensio of Spain controls the ball

Marco Asensio of Spain controls the ball//Getty Images

Pre-Game Outlook: Spain's Title Defence vs Netherlands' Resurgence 

The reigning Nations League champions travel to Rotterdam as the in-form side with five consecutive wins. La Roja’s dominance in possession and sharp finishing under Luis de la Fuente make them a formidable opponent. Spain’s midfield will contest without their Ballon d’Or winner, Rodri, which means Martin Zubimendi or Fabian Ruiz will be tasked with controlling the tempo, while Alvaro Morata leads the attack.

The return of Memphis Depay boosts the Netherlands’ attack. Despite this, Ronald Koeman’s side has struggled for consistency. Playing without the stadium support of their passionate ‘Orange Army’, the Dutch will need to be disciplined to avoid being overrun by Spain’s tiki-taka playing style. For expert analysis on this and other fixtures, check out our latest football betting tips. 

Pre-Game Odds and Win Probability

  1. Spain: 7/5 (2.40) – 41.7%​

  2. Draw: 12/5 (3.40) – 29.4%​

  3. Netherlands: 9/4 (3.25) – 30.8%

  4. *Odds courtesy of Betway, subject to change. 

Head-to-Head Record

  1. 11/11/20: Netherlands 1-1 Spain

  2. 31/03/15: Netherlands 2-0 Spain

  3. 13/06/14: Spain 1-5 Netherlands

  4. 11/07/10: Netherlands 0-1 Spain

  5. 27/03/02: Netherlands 1-0 Spain

Spain: Current Form – WWWW

Spain is in top-notch form, having won their last five matches, and are undefeated in their last 16 with a mere one loss in their last 25. Their most recent result was a 3-2 victory over Switzerland, where Bryan Zaragoza’s late penalty sealed the win. Before that, they edged past Denmark 2-1, preceded by domination over Serbia 3-0 with Morata, Aymeric Laporte, and Alex Baena getting on the scoresheet.

A tight 1-0 win over Denmark saw Zubimendi grab the crucial goal, while their biggest recent result came in a 4-1 thrashing of Switzerland, where Joselu, Ruiz (2), and Ferran Torres found the net.

With some younger talents expected to feature, and the middle of the park missing their talisman, it’s possible we could see some new partnerships. Spain must maintain defensive solidity via their possession game and put in a proper shift when losing possession for that quick counter-press because the Dutch can really hurt on the transition.

Key Players to Watch

  • Pedri: The Barcelona midfielder’s vision and passing ability will be key to unlocking the Dutch defence.
  • Alvaro Morata: Spain’s primary goal threat, with sharp movement in the final third, will be a nuisance to the Dutch backline. 
  • Lamine Yamal: The teenage sensation has been a game-changer in recent matches. Expect him to cause the Netherlands all kinds of problems with his pace, trickery and goal threat. 

Spain Team News

Notable inclusions are Raul Asencio from Real Madrid, who has received his first senior call-up, and the return of Inigo Martinez. However, Rodri is a notable omission from the squad.

Netherlands: Current Form – DWLDD

The Dutch opened their campaign with a 2-2 draw against Germany, followed by a 1-1 draw with Hungary, where Dumfries equalized after van Dijk’s red card. A 1-0 loss to Germany exposed the weak attack before a 4-0 win over Hungary saw Wout Weghorst, Cody Gakpo, Teun Koopmeiners, and Denzel Dumfries score. The 1-1 draw with Bosnia-Herzegovina ended with Brian Brobbey netting early, yet again defensive lapses cost Ronald Koeman’s boys.

Some solid changes have been and possibly more to come with Youri Baas having been called up to replace the injured Dumfries. Jurien Timber, alongside van Dijk, could add stability to a struggling defence, while Frenkie De Jong will dictate midfield, and Koopmeiners or Kenneth Taylor may need to sit deeper.

In attack, Brobbey and Cody Gakpo starting in attack have some serious firepower and with Depay and Donyell Malen as impact subs, they might have a solid chance. 

Fortunately, this can be seen as a win-win for the Dutch – lose, and they get an easier World Cup qualifying group; win, and they refine a system against top opposition. Koeman must take this chance to experiment.

Key Players to Watch

  • Memphis Depay: While he may be a sub, the Netherlands’ most experienced attacker, crucial for breaking Spain’s defence, has returned to the fray.
  • Virgil van Dijk: The world-class defensive leader will once again be tasked with keeping his backline in check. 
  • Cody Gakpo: The versatile forward has been in fine fettle for his club Liverpool in the Premier League. He can exploit spaces in Spain’s backline.

Netherlands Team News

The Netherlands will be without Dumfries, who has been ruled out due to a hamstring injury and has been replaced with Youri Baas. Frenkie de Jong missed Barcelona’s last match due to illness but has joined the squad and is expected to be available for selection.

Predicted Line-Up

  1. Spain: 4-3-3
    Unai Simón; Pedro Porro, Laporte, Pau Torres, Grimaldo; Zubimendi, Pedri, Fabian Ruiz; Yamal, Morata, Olmo.

  2. Netherlands: 4-2-3-1
    Verbruggen; Frimpong, van Dijk, Timber, Hato; Koopmeiners, De Jong; Simons, Gakpo, Lang; Brobbey.

Suggested Bets

The UEFA Nations League has become such a big event and can lead to odds not reflecting some passionate underdogs, but focusing on key trends can help find value bets. For expert betting strategies, visit our guide.

  1. Both Teams to Score (Yes): Spain and the Netherlands both boast attacking depth. Expect both sides to take their chances in front of goal. (13/20 with 1Win)

  2. Over 2.5 Goals: Spain’s recent matches have been high-scoring, therefore, we suggest over 2.5 goals. (15/20 with BetWinner)

  3. Spain Draw No Bet: While we predict a draw, Spain's control in possession makes them a safer bet. (19/20 with Betway)

Value Bets

  1. Correct Score (2-2 Draw): A tightly contested game with goals at both ends. (56/10 with 1Win)

  2. Spain to Win by One Goal: A reasonable bet given Spain’s form. (12/10 with Betway)

  3. Memphis Depay Anytime Goalscorer: A proven goal threat for the Dutch, back Depay to get on the scoresheet. (38/10 with 1Win)

Prediction: Draw & Both Teams to Score (Yes)

We are edging towards Spain’s control of possession possibly edging the fixture.  The Netherlands’ defensive resilience will undoubtedly be tested. However, you can’t count out the Dutch in finding the back of the net. Expect plenty of goal-scoring opportunities that should lead to a goal-scoring draw. There’ll be great value in this bet type; make sure to explore the best online betting sites for impressive odds. 

Joshua Gaillard
Joshua Gaillard Sports Writer

Joshua Gaillard is a freelance editor and dedicated Arsenal fan, known for creating fact-based, insightful content. His work, featured on top South African websites, blends analysis with engaging storytelling for clear, impactful articles.

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