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Uruguay vs Argentina Preview: Odds, Tips and Prediction

Date: Saturday, March 22, 2025 Kickoff Time: 00:30 GMT Venue: Estadio Centenario, Montevideo SportsBoom previews the FIFA World Cup qualifier between Uruguay and Argentina at Estadio Centenario on Saturday, March 22, 2025. With both teams fighting for vital points, this clash could play a huge role in shaping the table with five points separating the top two nations. If you're looking to bet on football games, check out the best football betting sites for promotions and enhanced odds.

Joshua Gaillard
J.G.

Last Updated: 2025-03-20

Chad Nagel

5 minutes read

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Lionel Messi controls the ball against Sebastian Caceres

Lionel Messi controls the ball against Sebastian Caceres//Getty Images

​Uruguay welcomes Argentina to Montevideo which will surely bring fireworks with no shortage of drama. La Celeste have made their home ground a place that most nations don’t take joy from, with the passionate Montevideo crowd unsettling visiting teams. Under Marcelo Bielsa, Uruguay’s approach has been high-intensity pressing, but results have been mixed, and this game will put them through their paces against top-tier opposition. 

For the reigning world champions, finishing top of their group is priority number one. Lionel Scaloni’s squad has not been as dominant in qualifiers as many expect and with a pending trip to Uruguay that has never been an easy feat, it will be a tightly contested encounter. La Albiceleste has a squad that has experienced a lot together, but they will need to be wary of Uruguay’s relentless pressure. For expert analysis on this and other fixtures, check out our latest football betting tips. 

Pre-Game Odds and Win Probability

Tight Contest Expected

  1. Uruguay: 8/5 (2.60) – 38.5%

  2. Draw: 2/1 (3.00) – 33.3%

    . 

  3. Argentina: 7/4 (2.75) – 36.4%

  4. Odds courtesy of Betway, subject to change

Head-to-Head Record

  1. 17/11/23: Argentina 0-2 Uruguay

  2. 12/11/21: Uruguay 0-1 Argentina

  3. 10/10/21: Argentina 3-0 Uruguay

  4. 18/11/19: Argentina 1-0 Uruguay

  5. 01/09/17: Uruguay 2-2 Argentina

Uruguay: Current Form – DWDLD

Uruguay enters this match following a mixed run of results in World Cup qualifiers. Their most recent fixture saw them battle to a 1-1 draw against Brazil, where Federico Valverde’s strike helped them secure a point against a tough opponent. Prior to that, they edged out Colombia in a thrilling 3-2 victory, which saw Manchester United’s Manuel Ugarte net a second-half additional-time goal, after Colombia had already scored in additional time to equalise. 

Inconsistency has been an issue for La Celeste. And it has been an issue because of their struggles in breaking down compact defences. A 0-0 draw against Ecuador, in which they had 11 shots at goal, and a disappointing 1-0 loss to Peru where they had 63% possession but failed to create many chances is telling of this.

Bielsa’s team has shown resilience, particularly at home, but their finishing needs improvement. The upcoming clash against Argentina will demand more with fewer chances and being clinical is what will make or break their chance at the number one spot. 

Key Players to Watch

  • Darwin Núñez: The Liverpool striker’s movement and finishing will be crucial in Uruguay’s counterattacks.
  • Federico Valverde: A relentless box-to-box presence, Valverde’s energy and passing range will dictate Uruguay’s midfield battles.
  • Ronald Araújo: The Barcelona defender will be key in shutting down Messi and Argentina’s attacking threats.

Uruguay Team News

Uruguay enters this match with a fully available squad, as previously suspended players – Darwin Núñez, Federico Valverde, Ronald Araújo, and others – have now served their bans. The squad will be at full strength, which proved key in their 3-2 victory and 1-1 draw with Brazil after a tough run.

Argentina: Current Form – WLWDL

Colombia has quietly become one of the most formidable underdogs in the CONMEBOL region under Nestor Lorenzo. Their discipline to the defensive approach from Nestor has earned them an unbeaten run of 28 fixtures, which secured wins against top notch sides like Germany, Uruguay, Spain, and their current opponents, Brazil. It is currently the nations longest unbeaten streak in its history. It was broken when they lost in the CONMEBOL final to Lionel Messi and co via penalties.

Their last outing against Brazil saw them hold their own in a 1-1 draw, reaffirming their resilience against top opposition after failing to show the same tenacity that they did in the unbeaten run. More recently, they have won just two fixtures since that final against Argentina, one of which was a 2-1 victory over La Albiceleste, and a convincing 4-0 thumping of Chile. But the recent 3-2 loss to Uruguay and 0-1 loss to Ecuador has left a lot to be desired.

The pace of Luis Diaz and the playmaking ability of James Rodriguez is crucial in the way Colombia force their efforts, and if it’s neutralized then life becomes difficult.

Key Players to Watch

  • Lionel Messi: The heartbeat of Argentina’s attack, Messi’s creativity will be key to unlocking Uruguay’s defence.
  • Lautaro Martínez: The Inter Milan forward has been Argentina’s most reliable goal scorer in recent qualifiers.
  • Cristian Romero: The aggressive centre-back does all the nasty work needed for Argentina.

Argentina Team News

No major injuries have been reported for Argentina, other than the omission of Giovani Lo Celso over fitness concerns.

Predicted Line-Up

  1. Uruguay: 4-3-3
    Rochet; Nández, Cáceres, Giménez, Olivera; De La Cruz, Vecino, Canobbio; Pellistri, Torres, Rodríguez.

  2. Argentina: 4-3-3
    Martínez; Molina, Romero, Otamendi, Acuña; De Paul, Paredes, Mac Allister; Messi, Martínez, González.

Suggested Bets

World Cup qualifiers are always tough to predict, but focusing on key trends can help find value bets. For expert betting strategies, visit our guide.

  1. Both Teams to Score (Yes): Uruguay’s attack is dangerous at home, while Argentina always carries a goal threat. (13/20 with Betway)

  2. Over 2.5 Goals: Given the attacking talent on both sides, expect an open and entertaining match. (7/10 with 1Win)

  3. Lautaro Martinez Anytime Goalscorer: The Inter Milan forward will lead Uruguay’s attack and pose the biggest threat. (29/10 with Betway)

Value Bets

  1. Correct Score (1-1 Draw): With both teams expected to find the back of the net but evenly matched, a 1-1 scoreline presents strong value. (4/1 with 1Win)

  2. Lautaro Martínez to Score First: The Inter Milan forward has been Argentina’s primary goal threat in qualifiers. (57/10 with Betway)

  3. Uruguay Draw No Bet: Given their home form and Argentina’s defensive inconsistencies, a narrow Uruguay win could be worth considering. (18/10 with Betway)

Prediction: Draw & Both Teams to Score (Yes)

Uruguay’s pressing game and home advantage will test Argentina, but the visitors’ experience should see them respond. A close contest is expected, with both sides likely to get on the scoresheet with the likes of Lautaro Martinez, Julian Alvarez and Lionel Messi for Argentina, and Facundo Pellistri, Facundo Torres, and Maximiliano Rodriguez. A draw seems the most probable outcome in this intense South American showdown. With plenty of goal-scoring opportunities expected, bettors will find strong markets available with leading online betting sites.

Joshua Gaillard
Joshua Gaillard Sports Writer

Joshua Gaillard is a freelance editor and dedicated Arsenal fan, known for creating fact-based, insightful content. His work, featured on top South African websites, blends analysis with engaging storytelling for clear, impactful articles.

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