Game Over: The winners and losers of the managerial merry-go-round

We get it. Your team’s lost five games on the bounce and you’re falling headfirst towards the relegation zone. There’s only one thing for it… sack the manager!

Every Premier League club is guilty of it, and sooner or later the urge for a change in managers becomes almost impossible to resist for even the most loyal of fanbases. But somehow after over 30 years of top flight action, no one can say for sure whether sacking the manager is a sure fire method to guarantee improved fortunes. Even the best football betting sites struggle to calculate the odds of managers being sacked due to the volatility of how every football club deals with this difficult situation.

Despite this, the Premier League managerial merry-go-round has shown no signs of slowing down lately.

Thankfully, we here at SportsBoom.com have seeked to calm the nerves of Premier League fans up and down the country by using data to determine exactly how often sacking the manager is the right call.

By crunching the numbers all the way back from the very beginning of the Premier League in 1992/93, right up until the end of the 2022/23 season, we have revealed:

As of January 1st 2024, there have been 159 managers sacked in 32 years of the Premier League, plus many more that have quit, retired, transferred or simply agreed to leave by mutual consent. However, we’re only interested in the 159 sorry sorts that have been handed the sack.

Out of that number, our complex calculations have established that 78 Premier League managerial sackings have been the right call. Unhelpfully, that’s equal to just about half of all EPL sackings being the correct decision. Meaning that - yes, you guessed it - about half have also been wrong.

We’re going to have to dig deeper…

GREAT EXPECTATIONS: Which Premier League clubs have sacked the most managers?

Chelsea have sacked more managers than any other team in Premier League history. The Blues simply love a sacking, and have given 14 different managers the boot in 32 seasons.

Anybody who thought that Chelsea’s sacking rate would slow down when Todd Boehly took over the club from Roman Abrahmovich was proven very wrong. 3 of those 14 sackings have come under the American, Boehly since he took over in May 2022. Basically, if you’re the Chelsea gaffer, then you’re never truly safe.

In second place is their London city rivals, Tottenham Hotspur. Spurs have also featured in all 32 Premier League seasons so far, and have sacked 13 managers in that time.

Southampton have sacked 10 different managers during the 24 seasons in which the club has played top flight football, ranking the Saints in third.

The fourth-most frequent sackers are Everton. The Toffees have sacked 8 different managers during their 32-year stay in the Premier League.

Aston Villa, Fulham, Leeds and Sunderland have all sacked 7 managers each, meaning these clubs tie for fifth place.

Meanwhile, Newcastle, Watford and West Brom have each given 6 different managers the sack, tying these clubs for ninth place.

But which clubs have sacked the most managers in relation to the amount of time they have spent in the Premier League?

We knew it wouldn’t take long before Watford were brought up in this conversation. The Hornets have only spent 8 seasons in the Premier League in total, but have managed to sack 6 managers in that time… and we’re not even including the Watford gaffers that have quit, stepped down or quietly shuffled to one side, either.

This means that on average, a Watford manager has been sacked in the Premier League every 1.3 seasons - or every 16 months if you’re looking for a more digestible metric.

Watford are infamous for leading the way when it comes to churning through managers, but the club is not alone in this fire-at-will style of approach.

Swansea City enjoyed a 7 year stint in the Premier League, but somehow managed to sack 5 different managers in that time. That’s a sacking every 1.4 seasons.

Leeds United are also guilty of going through managers a little too quickly. In the 15 seasons that Leeds have spent in the top flight, the clubs has given 7 different managers the sack.

Sunderland and West Brom are not much better, as each of the clubs have sacked a manager every 2.2 seasons on average. Sunderland have sacked 7 managers in 16 top flight seasons, while West Brom have sacked 6 managers in 13 seasons.

Finally, bringing it back to our most sack-happy club, Chelsea. You might have thought that Chelsea’s 32-season longevity in the league might have bought them (and their unfortunate managers) some time. However, the 14 managers sacked within 32 seasons, means that the West London club have sacked a manager every 2.3 seasons on average.

BALL KNOWLEDGE: Which Premier League clubs have the highest sacking success rate?

While some football clubs are more prone to sacking managers than others, it goes without saying that sooner or later every club has had to swing the axe. Does it always work out?

Surprisingly, some Premier League clubs have actually found that winning formula, and assured that the vast majority of sackings lead to a positive change in either win rate, points per game or league position. Meanwhile, other clubs have a bad habit of going backwards.

Portsmouth have the highest success rate when it comes to sacking managers and bringing in someone better to replace them. In fact, Pompey’s success rate in this department is quite literally a perfect 100%. The south coast club are 3 for 3 in sacking managers that lead to a genuine improvement in fortunes. Yes, even Avram Grant - who was in charge of Portsmouth at the time of their 2009/10 relegation - was statistically more successful at Fratton Park than his sacked predecessor, Paul Hart.

In second place is Crystal Palace, who have sacked 4 managers during their time in the Premier League, with 3 of those sackings leading to a positive change. Interestingly, two of those positive changes have both involved current boss Roy Hodgson replacing a sacked manager.

Should Crystal Palace part ways with Roy Hodgson any time soon, Eagles fans can feel assured that there is a 75% chance that the South London club will get it right. And if not, they can always bring back Roy Hodgson again? It’s never failed them before…

The third most consistent club when it comes to sacking managers is Aston Villa. The Birmingham-based club have sacked 7 managers, with 5 of the 7 replacement managers brought in proving to be a success. This gives Aston Villa an impressive sacking success rate of 71.42%.

Two Premier League winners - Arsenal and Liverpool - also have a high success rate when it comes to sacking managers. Both of these clubs have seen a positive change following 2 of their respective 3 managerial sackings, for a success rate of 66.66%.

Tottenham also rank highly with a sacking success rate of 61.53%. Meanwhile, Manchester City, Newcastle and West Ham all boast a healthy sacking success rate of 60%.

Several more clubs maintain a 100% sacking success rate simply because they have only sacked one manager while being in the Premier League. Be it through sheer loyalty or simply a lack of time and opportunity, the clubs that are 1 for 1 in sacking managers and bringing in someone better include Brighton, Derby, Hull, Wigan and Wimbledon.

The list of clubs who have only sacked a manager while in the Premier League and got it wrong is unfortunately even longer. All of Bolton, Bournemouth, Bradford, Cardiff, Coventry, Norwich, Reading and Stoke were all statistically worse off after their solitary Premier League sacking - many of these clubs were even relegated. Prior to the sacking of Steve Cooper, Nottingham Forest also fell into this category.

Of course, sacking the gaffer is not always the right call, especially if you are Leeds United. The Yorkshire club have given 7 different managers the sack during the 15 seasons they have spent in the Premier League, and unbelievably not 1 of those 7 sackings have brought about a positive change in fortunes, giving Leeds a sorry sacking success rate of 0%. The lowest of any Premier League club.

So, Leeds fans, be careful what you wish for the next time your manager’s neck is on the line…

GET OUTTA MY CLUB: Which Premier League managers have been sacked the most times

Obviously, getting sacked from any job is never nice, but after 2, 3, maybe even 4 times, the familiarity surely numbs the pain. Yes, some Premier League managers are much more familiar with the feeling of being sacked than others. In fact, many have faced the chop on multiple occasions.

This is one first-place finish that no football manager wants to claim, and surprisingly it is shared by 2 different former Premier League bosses.

Both Claudio Ranieri and Mark Hughes have been sacked by a Premier League club a record number of 4 times. Although, that’s not the only sacking stat the pair have in common.

Rainieri’s first Premier League sacking came at Chelsea in 2004, while the first time that Hughes was shown the door was at Manchester City in 2009. In each of these incidents, both Ranieri and Hughes’ immediate successor - Jose Mourinho at Chelsea and Roberto Mancini at Manchester City - would go on to win the Premier League title with their respective clubs.

Claudio Ranieri did of course go on to win the Premier League himself with Leicester City in 2015/16. However, he suffered his second sacking the very next season. The Italian would later go on to be sacked by Fulham and Watford too. Meanwhile, Mark Hughes has also been sacked by QPR, Stoke and Southampton.

Jose Mourinho might have replaced Ranieri at Chelsea, but the ‘special one’ also makes an appearance on this list. The Portuguese football legend has been sacked by a Premier League club on 3 separate occasions. Mourinho’s first stint at Chelsea came to an end by ‘mutual consent’, so his first official sacking came during his second spell with Chelsea, which ended in December 2015. He was later sacked by Manchester United in December 2018 and by Tottenham in April 2021.

Peter Reid has also been sacked by 3 different Premier League clubs. His first sacking came at Manchester City in August 1993, and it would be nearly another decade before Reid was shown the door again, but that blow was delivered by Sunderland in October 2002. It was a much shorter wait for the next sacking however, as that came just over a year later at Leeds in November 2003.

20 different managers have all been sacked by 2 separate Premier League clubs. Although, the only name from this 20 still currently managing a Premier League club in 2023/24 is Marco Silva. Could the Portuguese manager be the next to join the dreaded 3+ club?

WHO YOU GONNA CALL?: Which managers are most often brought in to steady the ship?

Sacking the manager of your football club is one thing, but replacing them with the right man is a much tougher task. Understandably, there are a few names who have floated around the Premier League managerial scene over the years and are recognised as a safe pair of hands to bring in when the ship needs steadying.

And as the old cliche goes, there’s no safer bet than giving it to Sam Allardyce ‘til the end of the season. Big Sam has been brought in to replace a sacked manager a total of 6 times. All of Blackburn, Crystal Palace, Everton, Leeds, West Brom and West Ham have called in Allardyce to steady the ship at some point.

Allardyce himself has only ever been officially sacked by two Premier League clubs - Blackburn and Everton. Many more of his managerial exits have been the result of ‘mutual consent’ or his choosing to resign.

Another popular man to call when your clubs are in need of someone who can bust a ghostly run of form is Roy Hodgson - who has been brought in to replace a sacked manager on 5 separate occasions. Twice, Roy Hodgson has picked up the phone to Crystal Palace, first replacing Frank de Boer in September 2017, and later replacing Patrick Vieira in March 2023. Over the years, Hodgson has also been brought in to replace sacked managers at Fulham, Watford and West Brom.

Surprisingly, despite taking charge of 6 different Premier League clubs over a period of 26 years, Roy Hodgson has only ever been sacked once in the Premier League. Blackburn Rovers - his first top-flight managerial position - dismissed Hodgson way back in November 1998.

All of Alan Pardew, Claudio Ranieri and Harry Redknapp are high on the list of people to call when a football club need to replace a sacked manager. Each of these 3 managers have all been brought in as a safe pair of hands on 4 separate occasions.

As you might have guessed already, each of the 4 clubs that have called in Claudio Ranieri to replace a sacked manager, would all later go on to sack him too. The most relevant of these sackings to this section of our story is also the most recent. When Claudio Ranieri was dismissed from his position at Watford in January 2022, he was replaced with none other than go-to Premier League ghostbuster, Roy Hodgson.

Level with Ranieri on 4 ship-steadying call-ups, Alan Pardew has been brought in to succeed a sacked manager by all of Charlton, Crystal Palace, Newcastle and West Brom. Meanwhile, Harry Redknapp has been asked to help out after a sacking by all of QPR, Portsmouth, Southampton and Tottenham.

Elsewhere, the likes of Ron Atkinson, Jose Mourinho and David Moyes are all popular managers to call up when there’s a managerial vacancy in the Premier League. Each of these men has replaced a sacked top-flight manager a total of 3 times.

Furthermore, a total of 18 more individuals have all replaced a sacked EPL manager on 2 occasions.

WINNERS AND LOSERS: The most positive and negative sackings in EPL history

When football clubs choose to get rid of the manager, there can be a variety of different reasons behind it. More often than not the team is in desperate need of some short-term success, but sometimes success is better measured in the long-term with a more strategic approach.

As such, there are plenty of different ways to determine whether the decision to sack one manager and replace them with another has been successful. We have narrowed those reasons down to three - win rate percentage, points per game and league position.

You’d have to go as far back as 2005/06 to find the most positive sacking in terms of win rate. Portsmouth’s decision to replace Alain Perrain with Harry Redknapp remains the best call ever made in the top flight as far as win rate is concerned. Portsmouth’s win rate got a record-high boost of 23.46% during Redknapp’s tenure, and unsurprisingly he kept Portsmouth safe from relegation in 2005/06 too.

Second place should be a little fresher in people’s minds. Aston Villa’s decision to sack Steven Gerrard and bring in Unai Emery* went down as a brilliant call in terms of win rate, as the Villains saw theirs go up by a whole 23.05%.

Crystal Palace pop up again in third, but this is one managerial switch-up at Selhurst Park that Roy Hodgson was not involved in, for once. The Eagles’ decision to replace Neil Warnock with Alan Pardew back in 2014/15 saw the club’s win rate increase by a very impressive 22.58%.

However, you can’t keep Roy Hodgson away that easily, as both the fourth and fifth most positive managerial sackings in terms of win rate do involve the former England boss. Hodgson’s replacement of Lawrie Sanchez at Fulham in 2007/08 saw an increase in win rate of 22.39% at Craven Cottage. A decade later in 2017/18, Hodgson replaced Frank de Boer at Crystal Palace and brought the win rate up by a similar percentage of 22.37%.

Aston Villa’s excellent Emery appointment aside, 2022/23 was some season for getting it wrong. 4 out of the 5 worst sacking decisions in the history of the Premier League came in the 2022/23 season, including 2 of them at the same club, Chelsea.

The Chelsea board’s decision to dismiss Thomas Tuchel in September 2022 and replace the German gaffer with Graham Potter saw the club’s average win rate drop by a huge 24.29%. This managerial change went down as the fifth-worst in top flight history, and meant that the writing was on the wall for Potter come April 2023.

However, the decision from Chelsea to get rid of Graham Potter that same season proved to be an even worse call than the one that brought the ex-Brighton boss there in the first place. When Potter was replaced by Frank Lampard** (fittingly, the man who Tuchel initially replaced), the West London club saw their win rate drop by a further 29.62%. This means that the call to replace Potter with Lampard at Chelsea is currently the worst managerial decision ever made in the Premier League… as far as win rate percentages are concerned anyway.

That same 2022/23 season saw Leeds go through managers like they were going out of fashion. When Jesse Marsch was replaced with Javi Gracia, Leeds’ win rate dipped by 4.73%. However, with four games left to go in the season, Leeds rolled the dice on Sam Allardyce in a desperate bid for survival. It did not work out, as Big Sam failed to win a single game at Elland Road, and Leeds’ win rate dropped by 25% - the second-most severe drop in win rate in top-flight history.

Nathan Jones’ dismissal from Southampton that same season also proved to be catastrophic in terms of win rate, which dropped by 24.6% when the Saints switched to Ruben Selles. However, this is one case where the win rate does not tell the full story. Jones was in charge of Southampton for just 14 games, winning 5 in total, but losing 9 and drawing 0. This means that Jones’ win rate skews the data towards making his time in the St Mary’s dugout seem slightly more successful than it truly was.

Completing the dreaded bottom five line up for worst sacking decisions in terms of win rate is Wolves’ sacking of Mick McCarthy and the subsequent hiring of Terry Connor in 2011/12. This decision resulted in relegation for Wolves that season, and the knock-on effects saw the Black Country club sink even further down to the depths of the third division the very next season.

When we start to use points per game (PPG) as the key metric to measure success, the most positive managerial sacking changes.

During the 1994/95 season, Everton sacked Mike Walker and replaced him with Joe Royle. In turn, the Toffees saw their average PPG increase by 0.66 between the two tenures. Joe Royle was also the last Everton manager to win silverware for their club. He helped guide the Merseyside club to an FA Cup and a Charity Shield.

Aston Villa’s decision to replace Steven Gerrard with Unai Emery in 2022/23, and Crystal Palace’s decision to replace Frank de Boer with Roy Hodgson in 2017/18 paid off just as much in terms of PPG as it did win rate. Ranking joint second in this table, the Unai Emery hiring increased Aston Villa’s PPG by 0.63. Meanwhile, the Roy Hodgson hiring ranks fourth here, as Crystal Palace’s PPG increased by 0.62.

Wigan Athletic also experienced a sharp increase in PPG when they sacked Chris Hutchings and replaced him with Steve Bruce back in 2007/08. Wigan’s PPG under Bruce increased by 0.63, and in his debut season, he guided the Latics to a 14th place finish - a huge achievement given that the club had survived on goal difference the season before.

Charlton Athletic and Hull City complete the top five by ranking joint fifth. Both of the decisions to swap out Les Reed for Alan Pardew in 2006/07, and Mike Phelan for Marco Silva in 2016/17 brought about an increase in PPG of 0.6 for the respective clubs.

The bottom five results for negative sackings in terms of PPG are very similar to the bottom five in terms of win rate.

The decision from Chelsea to sack Graham Potter and bring in Frank Lampard in 2022/23 has gone down in history as the worst managerial change in terms of PPG, as well as in terms of win rate. Chelsea’s PPG dropped by 0.97 during Lampard’s second stint in the Stamford Bridge dugout.

The initial decision to bring in Graham Potter to replace the sacked Thomas Tuchel earlier in 2022/23 saw Chelsea’s PPG drop by 0.66, which again puts it in the bottom five worst managerial changes in the Premier League.

Just as they did in the win rate table, the decisions from Leeds to replace Javi Gracia with Sam Allardyce in 2022/23, and Wolves’ decision to sack Mick McCarthy and bring in Terry Connor in 2016/17, also place them in the bottom five in terms of PPG, with respective drops in PPG of 0.67.

Also at the tail end of this list - in second-to-last place - is Charlton’s decision to swap out Iain Dowie for Les Reed in 2006/07, which led to a drop in PPG of 0.71. For a long time, Les Reed held the record as the shortest-serving manager in Premier League history. Reed only lasted 41 days at The Valley, before being sacked and replaced with Alan Pardew - which we have already established was a positive decision for the club in terms of PPG.

Yes, we know things like win rate percentages and PPG might be all-important to stats boffins like us, but at the end of the day, it is where clubs finish in the league that is all people truly remember.

Some managerial sackings have had dramatic effects on a football club’s league position, both positive and negative.

Back in October 2008, Tottenham Hotspur found themselves at the very bottom of the Premier League table. Some would argue that Spurs simply had no choice but to sack then-manager Juande Ramos and replace him with Harry Redknapp. Fast forward to June 2012 and the time of Redknapp’s own Spurs sacking, he left the club in a much more favourable position of 4th.

The 16 league places that Redknapp brought Tottenham up by means that Ramos’ sacking remains the most positive one that the EPL has ever seen in terms of league position.

3 more managers all helped to raise their respective football clubs up by a whole 13 league places during their tenures. Graham Potter at Brighton, Ron Atkinson at Sheffield Wednesday and Alan Curbishley at West Ham all left their clubs in a much healthier place in the league than where the likes of Chris Hughton, David Pleat and Alan Pardew respectively left them.

Completing the top five for most positive sackings in terms of league position is Everton’s decision to give Ronald Koeman the boot back in October 2017. The Dutch manager was sacked with the Toffees in 18th place, but his replacement Sam Allardyce had the club 10 places higher in 8th by the time of his own departure from Goodison Park.

Of course, sacking your team’s manager is not all ladders, there are a few snakes along the way too. Everton found this out when they sacked Sam Allardyce despite his positive league position and brought in Marco Silva to replace him. At the time of Silva’s sacking in December 2019, Everton were right back where they were two years prior - 18th place. A whole 10-place slide from where Allardyce had got them.

That goes down as the joint-worst managerial sacking in terms of league position in Premier League history along with two other ill-thought-out firings. Surprisingly, one of these also involved Marco Silva, who in 2016/17 had Watford in 10th place when he was given the chop. His replacement at Vicarage Road, Javi Gracia, dragged the Hornets down 10 places to the very bottom of the table before he was given the boot.

The first man to leave a Premier League club 10 league places worse off than when we came in was Terry Venables at Leeds. Venables’ takeover of the Elland Road dugout from David O’Leary proved to be a disastrous decision, and he was sacked within the same season.

Elsewhere, Mauricio Pellegrino took Southampton down 9 places when he took over the St Mary’s hot seat from Claude Puel in 2017/18.

Meanwhile, the similarly named Mauricio Pochettino left Tottenham an entire 8 rungs lower down the league when he sacked in November 2019, compared to where Spurs were in the table when his predecessor Tim Sherwood was sacked in May 2014. However, during his 5 year reign as Spurs boss, Pochettino did guide the club to several Top 4 finishes, plus the 2019 UEFA Champions League final.

Gianluca Vialli also brought his former club Chelsea down the league by 8 places in 1997/98 when he stepped in to replace the sacked Ruud Gullit.

‘TIS THE SEASON: The months when Premier League managerial sackings are most common

32 years since the Premier League began, and the managerial merry-go-round continues to spin. There’s been no shortage of sackings in that time, but at which times of the year do they most often happen?

During the winter months, very few people feel the cold quite like Premier League managers, with more of them being sacked in the month of December than in any other month. A total of 27 managers have been shown the door during the month of December. 16 of those have been proven by our metrics to have been statistically positive decisions - making December sackings a safe bet approximately two thirds of the time.

Some clubs simply can’t wait for December to see what’s in their sack, as 24 Premier League managers have been sacked during the month of November. A total of 13 of those have been statistically proven to be positive calls - just over half.

The next most common months for managerial sackings are February and May, as 18 Premier League managers have been sacked in each of these months.

The least common month for managerial sackings in the Premier League is July, where only 3 gaffers have been given the sack. They are David O’Leary at Aston Villa in 2006, Antonio Conte at Chelsea in 2018 and Nigel Pearson at Watford in 2020. The latter of which made little difference to the already Championship-bound Hornets.

2 of sacking experts Portsmouth’s 3 managerial sackings took place in the month of November. Meanwhile, last placers Leeds United performed 5 out of their 7 sackings in the second half of the season. The statistically most negative Premier League sacking of all time - Frank Lampard in for Graham Potter at Chelsea - also took place in the second half of the season, the month of April to be exact.