MMA
Usman Nurmagomedov vs Paul Hughes Predictions, Odds and Tips
In this article, we will provide fight analysis, odds and betting tips for the upcoming PFL lightweight title clash between Usman Nurmagomedov and Paul Hughes. Date: Saturday 25th January 2025 Venue: Coca-Cola Arena, Dubai, United Arab Emirates Main Card Start Time: 11AM ET
Usman Nurmagomedov//Getty Images
MMA fans are in for a treat at the beginning of 2025 as Bellator lightweight champion Usman Nurmagomedov is set to take on top contender Paul Hughes, on January 25th.
This fight is being dubbed Dagestan vs Ireland 2; following the rivalry between Khabib Nurmagomedov and Conor McGregor, making this a must-watch fight.
Usman Nurmagomedov, the cousin of Khabib, is the reigning and defending Bellator lightweight champion, and he has wowed MMA fans with his blend of excellent grappling and striking skills.
Meanwhile, Paul Hughes brings to the cage his versatile striking and aggressive submission attempts. Between them they have 33 fights to their name and only one defeat, coming on the side of Hughes, making this one of the most highly anticipated matchups of early 2025.
This fight has all the makings to be a highly entertaining matchup, and this provides MMA fans to get in on the action via online gambling ‐ you can visit some of the best bookmaker websites here.
Usman Nurmagomedov vs Paul Hughes Fight Details
Date: January 25th, 2025
Main Card Start: 9AM E.T
Location: Coca Cola Arena, United Arab Emirates
Last Meeting: This is the first time Usman Nurmagomedov and Paul Hughes have fought.
Odds and Betting Tips
Pre-Fight Odds and Win Probability
- Usman Nurmagomedov: 1/5, 1.2 - 83.3%
- Paul Hughes: 7/2, 4.5 - 22.22%
Odds courtesy of Betway (subject to change)*
Betting Tips
If you love betting on MMA, here are some bets you can place at some of the top MMA sportsbooks.
- Usman Nurmagomedov to Win: 1/6, (1.17), 85.7%: While these odds are very low, Usman Nurmagomedov is expected to dominate Paul Hughes this weekend, and he can win in various ways. Taking Nurmagomedov and placing him in a multiple bet should help boost the odds slightly whilst almost guaranteeing that leg being won.
- Will The Fight Go The Distance? Yes: 4/9, (1.44), 69.2%: While Nurmagomedov has the clear advantage in this fight, it is not a given that he can stop the Irishman considering Hughes has never been stopped in the amateurs or pro ranks. Over the last few years, Hughes has made a name for himself due to his aggression and durability, and that could continue here.
- Under 2.5 Rounds: 3/1, (4.00), 25%: At these odds, bettors could be intrigued considering the last ten of Nurmagomedov and Hughes's fights have seen five finishes under 2.5 rounds. Nurmagomedov has the advantage in this one, especially in grappling, and the Russian could be looking to get the win on the ground in order to limit Hughes’ aggressive striking style.
All odds courtesy of Betway (odds subject to change)*
Fighter Form
Usman Nurmagomedov's last five bouts
- Usman Nurmagomedov def Chris Gonzalez by Sub in Round 1
- Usman Nurmagomedov def Patricky Pitbull by Decision
- Usman Nurmagomedov def Benson Henderson by Sub in Round 1
- Usman Nurmagomedov vs Brent Primus - No Contest
- Usman Nurmagomedov def Alexandr Shabliy by Decision
Paul Hughes’ last five bouts
- Paul Hughes def Jordan Vucenic by Decision
- Paul Hughes def Jan Quaeyhaegens by KO in Round 1
- Paul Hughes def Fabiano Silva by TKO in Round 1
- Paul Hughes def Bobby King by TKO in Round 2
- Paul Hughes def AJ McKee by Decision
Usman Nurmagomedov News
Usman Nurmagomedov has no injury news heading into this bout.
Strategy: The Russian will hope to mix up his elite striking and grappling during this fight. If Nurmagomedov's Muay Thai isn't working then look for him to take Hughes down and find a submission.
Paul Hughes News
Paul Hughes has no injury news heading into this bout.
Strategy: The Irishman has superb striking and he is highly aggressive. Look for him to put the foot on the gas early on in this fight and force Nurmagomedov back to the cage. This will also help limit his opponent's takedown attempts.
Value Bets
Here are some value bets to consider for this upcoming MMA bout.
Paul Hughes to Win: 4/1, (5.00), 20%: One thing to say about Paul Hughes is that he is very much a live dog in any fight. He has incredible durability and toughness, meaning he will never quit on himself no matter the situation. Considering the aggression Hughes fights at, and the power he possesses, there is a chance he could catch Nurmagomedov with something big if the Russian stands tall in front of him.
Will The Fight Go The Distance? No: 13/8, (2.63), 38.1%: Sometimes these high calibre bouts tend to be a bit of a chess match and a waiting game. However, Hughes’ style simply will not allow that to happen because he is too much of a come-forward heavy pressure striker. This could play into the hands of Nurmagomedov who can counter Hughes as he comes in, or look for takedown entries.
Under 3.5 Rounds: 12/5, (3.40), 29.4%: As mentioned above, this one is likely to be a high paced fight while it lasts. It's tough to see this one going into the championship rounds because altogether, they have made it into rounds four or five just five times in 33 pro bouts.
All odds courtesy of Betway (odds subject to change)*
Prediction
It would be great to see an upset in this fight and Paul Hughes come out victorious, but that does seem unlikely in reality. Usman Nurmagomedov has a huge grappling advantage and he is also a very versatile striker. While Hughes is extremely durable, we can see Usman Nurmagomedov finishing this fight inside the distance if he can get Hughes to the ground. Under 2.5 rounds looks like a good play here.
Jake Staniland is a sports writer who excels in covering a wide range of sports: football, combat sports and the NFL - All three subjects are his lifelong passions.
Jake is a boyhood Sheffield United fan, which is often a curse that he thanks his family for. His favourite Blades player ever is Billy Sharp
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