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Brandon Moreno vs Steve Erceg Preview: Odds, Tips and Prediction

Date: Saturday 29 March 2025 Time: 10:00 PM (BST) – Main Card Venue: CDMX, Mexico City, Mexico SportsBoom previews UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs Erceg, set to ignite Arena CDMX in Mexico City, Mexico, on Saturday, March 29, 2025, as the UFC returns to the capital for the first time in over a year. Home-country hero Brandon Moreno, Mexico’s first-ever UFC champion, takes on rising Australian contender Steve Erceg in a pivotal flyweight showdown. You can visit MMA betting sites for expert insights on the best MMA sports betting and online MMA betting.

J.G.

Sports Writer

Last Updated: 2025-03-26

Fact checked by:

Chad Nagel

Content Manager

7 minutes read

UFC Fight Night Moreno v Albazi Official Weigh-in/Getty Images

Table of Contents

Brandon Moreno returns to action in front of his home fans after a narrow split-decision loss to Brandon Royval at UFC Fight Night 237, a result that pushed him down the flyweight ladder.

Currently ranked No. 2, the former champ aims for victory with the idea of challenging for UFC gold once again. Steve Erceg, ranked No. 10, is coming off three consecutive UFC triumphs and chases a breakout moment that could catapult him into the same conversation.

Brandon Moreno will defend national pride, while Erceg eyes a major leap — the stakes here are sky-high in this flyweight showdown.

With a packed lineup featuring fan-favourites like Kelvin Gastelum, Raul Rosas Jr., and Drew Dober, this event promises high-energy action from start to finish.

Join us as we break down UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs Erceg, from the full fight card and venue details to betting odds, head-to-head analysis, and expert predictions.

Pre-Game Odds and Win Probability: Moreno Favoured In Homecoming

The betting odds for the UFC Fight Night main event between Brandon Moreno and Steve Erceg are shaping up with Moreno as the clear favourite:

Brandon Moreno: 4/9 (1.45) – 68.9%-win probability
Steve Erceg: 7/4 (2.75) – 36.3%-win probability

Odds courtesy of Stake, subject to change.

If you're diving into online sports betting, it's crucial to track movement in pre-fight markets — and SportsBoom has got you covered for expert analysis and updates across all major MMA events.

Tale of the Tape

This flyweight showdown brings together two fighters with contrasting styles and physical tools. Below is a side-by-side comparison of Brandon Moreno and Steve Erceg, highlighting the key attributes that could influence the outcome on fight night:

Attribute	Brandon Moreno	Steve Erceg
Age	30	28
Height	170 cm (5’7”)	173 cm (5’8”)
Weight	57 kg (125 lbs)	57 kg (125 lbs)
Reach	178 cm (70”)	174 cm (68.5”)
Record	22-8-2	12-3-0
KO/TKO	23% (5 of 22 wins)	25% (3 out of 12 wins)
Submission	50% (11 of 22 wins)	50% (6 out of 12 wins)
Decisions	27% (6 of 22 wins)	25% (3 out of 12 wins)

Moreno brings a slight edge in reach and experience, along with a dominant submission game that has finished over half of his victories. Erceg, meanwhile, is slightly taller and enters with a solid all-round game, eager to prove he belongs at the elite level.

Brandon Moreno News

Former flyweight champion Brandon Moreno returns to action in front of a raucous home crowd in Mexico City, where he’s been a feature of each of the UFC’s last three events in the country. Unfortunately for “The Assassin Baby,” he’s yet to secure a win on home soil, going 0-2-1 in those previous Mexican appearances.

That said, Moreno enters Saturday’s main event with renewed confidence after a strong performance against Amir Albazi last November in Edmonton. While he ultimately dropped a split decision to Brandon Royval earlier this year, the bout was razor-thin and did little to damage his elite status in the flyweight division. Fully fit and motivated, Moreno will look to finally give his home fans a victory worth celebrating.

The roar of the Mexican crowd is expected to be deafening as he walks out, flag in hand. This isn’t just another fight for Moreno — it’s a deeply personal moment of redemption and national pride.

UFC Fight Night Schnell v Erceg — Steve Erceg of Australia punches Matt Schnell during the UFC Fight Night/Getty Im

Steve Erceg News

Australia’s Steve Erceg heads into the biggest fight of his career with quiet momentum and plenty of upside. The 28-year-old has reeled off three straight UFC wins and recently challenged for the flyweight title — further proof that he belongs among the division’s top names. Ranked No. 8 heading into Saturday, a win over a former champion like Moreno could launch him directly into the title conversation once again.

While this will be Erceg’s first fight in Mexico, he’s no stranger to competing in unfamiliar environments. He enters this bout hungry to disrupt Moreno’s homecoming and shake up the flyweight hierarchy. The Aussie is typically calm and composed — he’s shown the ability to handle pressure, adapt mid-fight, and stay dangerous across three rounds.

However, while he recently went five rounds in a competitive title fight against Alexandre Pantoja, this will be his first non-title five-round bout — and doing so on enemy soil adds another layer of pressure.
A win in Mexico City would not only silence the crowd — it could establish Erceg as a legitimate threat to the flyweight throne.

Suggested Bets

For those interested in wagering on UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg, here are some suggested bets based on current odds from Stake. Please note that odds are subject to change.

Fight to Go the Distance – Yes: Both Moreno and Erceg have demonstrated durability in their careers. Moreno has seen the judges' scorecards in 13 of his 32 professional bouts, while Erceg has gone the distance in 5 of his 15 fights. Given their resilience and technical prowess, there's a strong possibility this bout will last all five rounds. 4/7 (1.57) – 63.7%
Brandon Moreno to Win by Decision: Moreno's strategic approach and experience in five-round fights make a decision victory plausible. With the support of his home crowd and his ability to control the pace, Moreno could outpoint Erceg over the duration of the fight. 5/6 (1.83) – 54.6%
Total Rounds Over 3.5: Considering the endurance and defensive skills of both fighters, it's likely that the match will extend beyond the 3.5-round mark. 8/13 (1.62) – 61.7%
For sports betting in the world of MMA, staying informed about the fighters' form and any last-minute changes is so crucial. For comprehensive analyses and updates on UFC events, consider exploring sports betting online for major or minor details that could sway your pick.

Value Bets

For those seeking higher returns on UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg, here are three value bets worth considering, based on current odds from Stake. These outcomes may be less likely but offer stronger payouts for bold punters, and taking advantage of a sign-up bonus can provide extra value when placing wagers on these high-potential outcomes.

Fight to End in a Draw: While rare, draws do happen — and interestingly, Brandon Moreno has already fought to a draw on two separate occasions in Mexico. With both fighters known for their durability and ability to steal rounds, this long-shot outcome isn’t entirely out of the question. 50/1 (51.00) – 2%
Brandon Moreno to Win in Round 4: Moreno’s conditioning and fight IQ tend to shine in the championship rounds. Despite Erceg’s recent five-round title experience, Moreno’s proven track record in championship bouts gives him the edge in the later rounds. 12/1 (13.00) – 7.7%
Brandon Moreno to Win by Submission: Over half of Moreno’s victories have come via submission, and if he drags Erceg into deep waters, his slick grappling could be the difference. A tap-out win would be a fitting exclamation mark in front of his home crowd. 4/1 (5.00) – 20%

Prediction: Moreno by Decision

Brandon Moreno has all the tools to get the job done in front of a roaring Mexican crowd. With five-round experience, elite cardio, and a smart, technical approach, he should be able to edge out Steve Erceg on the scorecards. Erceg is a tough, durable challenger, but Moreno’s ability to control the pace and rack up points will likely carry him to a well-earned unanimous decision. Backed by national pride and hungry to end his winless streak in Mexico, “The Assassin Baby” gets it done — and gets it done his way.

Joshua Gaillard Sports Writer

Joshua Gaillard is a freelance editor and dedicated Arsenal fan, known for creating fact-based, insightful content. His work, featured on top South African websites, blends analysis with engaging storytelling for clear, impactful articles.

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