MMA
Colby Covington vs Joaquin Buckley: UFC Fight Night
In this article, we will provide fight analysis, odds and betting tips for the upcoming UFC welterweight top contender clash between Colby Covington and Joaquin Buckley.
Joaquin Buckley//Getty Images
As we head into the festive period, the UFC are serving up some real gifts for fight fans when we get to see Colby Covington take on Joaquin Buckley in a welterweight top contender clash on Saturday, December 14th.
This will be Covington's first bout since last December when he lost in his title challenge to then-welterweight champion, Leon Edwards. Meanwhile, this will be Buckley's fourth fight of 2024, signalling his career momentum and activity which can only be a benefit against an opponent that has fought only twice in two years heading into this contest.
The current UFC welterweight standings rank Covington as the number six best fighter in the division. While Buckley is ranked number nine.
This fight has all the makings to be a highly entertaining matchup, and this allows UFC fans to get in on the action via online gambling ‐ you can visit some of the best bookmaker websites here.
Colby Covington vs Joaquin Buckley Fight Details
Date: Saturday, December 14th
Main Card Start: 10PM E.T / 7PM P.T
Location: Amalie Arena, Tampa, Florida.
Last Meeting: This is the first time Covington and Buckley have fought.
Odds and Betting Tips
Pre-Game Odds and Win Probability
- Colby Covington: 19/10 (2.90) – 34.48%
- Joaquin Buckley: 9/22 (1.41) – 70.9%
- *Odds Provided by Stake.
Betting Tips
- Joaquin Buckley to Win Outright: Joaquin Buckley is the in-form fighter of the two, and he's had three fights (three wins) since the last time Colby Covington fought. All of the momentum is on his side. (1.41 - Stake), (1.33 - Betway).
- Joaquin Buckley to Win By KO/TKO: Three of Buckley's last five fights have ended by KO/TKO with him being the victor. He clearly has the power advantage and striking technique in this matchup. (2.62 - Betway), (2.50 - Stake).
- Will the Fight Go the Distance? “No” (1.90 - Stake): This a five round fight between somebody that has a clear power advantage [Buckley], and someone that is known for relentless pressure, cardio and wrestling [Covington]. The likely outcome is an early KO/TKO win for Buckley, or a late stoppage win for Covington. (1.90 - Stake), (2.00 - Betway).
Recent Fight Record
Colby Covington: Recent Fight Record
Last Five Results (UFC)
Dec 14, 2019: Kamaru Usman def. Colby Covington by TKO in Round 5.
Sept 19, 2020: Colby Covington def. Tyron Woodley by TKO in Round 5.
Nov 6, 2021: Kamaru Usman def. Colby Covington by Unanimous Decision.
Mar 5, 2022: Colby Covington def. Jorge Masvidal by Unanimous Decision.
Dec 16, 2023: Leon Edwards def. Colby Covington by Unanimous Decision.
Joaquin Buckley: Recent Fight Record
Last Five Results (UFC)
May 20, 2023: Joaquin Buckley def. Andre Fialho by TKO in Round 2.
Oct 7, 2023: Joaquin Buckley def. Alex Morono by Unanimous Decision.
Mar 30, 2024: Joaquin Buckley def. Vicente Luque by TKO in Round 2.
May 11, 2024: Joaquin Buckley def. Nursulton Ruziboev by Unanimous Decision.
Oct 5, 2024: Joaquin Buckley def. Stephen Thompson by KO in Round 3.
Colby Covington: Current Form
Colby Covington has not had the best of form over the last five years having fought just once per year, losing three of his last five coming into this. The former UFC interim welterweight champion has lost his reputation of being a fighter that uses relentless pressure to break his opponents’ will.
With barely any activity or career momentum over the last five years, you have to wonder where his motivation comes from if he enters deep waters in this fight with Joaquin Buckley.
If Covington can recapture his previous form, which led him to claim the UFC interim championship, then he will need to utilise his excellent cardio, relentless volume striking and his wrestling background. To add, despite Covington losing three of his last five bouts, he does have a clear edge in experience and being under the lights in big fights in the main event slot. Sometimes these fights do come down to who keeps their cool the best.
Colby Covington punches Leon Edwards//Getty Images
Joaquin Buckley: Current Form
Joaquin Buckley comes into this fight with unbelievable form, winning his last five bouts, and having fought five times across 12 months. Therefore, Buckley has the clear edge in form and activity, and he's potentially one more big win away from getting a shot at the welterweight title.
Buckley is known for his exciting striking style which saw him go viral when he spinning back kicked Impa Kasanganay whilst his other foot was being held. Since his back-to-back losses in 2022, against Nassourdine Imavov and Chris Curtis, Buckley has taken it on himself to become a far better well-rounded fighter. He now fights smartly whilst still carrying his explosive striking attacks.
His takedown defence has improved over the years, but this upcoming bout against Colby Covington will undoubtedly be his biggest test in terms of his wrestling and grappling. In addition, this is the first time Buckley will be in the main event slot; will his inexperience on the big stage hinder his ability to perform against Covington?
Colby Covington News
Colby Covington has no injury news to report on, however, it's important to note this is the first time he is stepping into the octagon since he suffered a broken foot during his loss against Leon Edwards.
Strategy: “Chaos” should look to lean heavily on his wrestling prowess in order to drain the gas tank of Buckley and limit his explosive striking output.
Joaquin Buckley News
Joaquin Buckley has no injury news to report on heading into this bout.
Strategy: The St. Louis native has reportedly been sparring with some of the most elite wrestlers in the world in order to try and fine tune his wrestling defence in preparation for Covington's wrestle-heavy approach.
Value Bets
Joaquin Buckley to Win in Round 2: Two of Joaquin Buckley's last five fights have ended with a TKO win in round for the St. Louis fighter. And at odds of 7.00 (Stake), this seems appealing at that price. Covington has not fought since December 2023 having recovered from a foot injury, which could lead to some rustiness early on from “Chaos”. (Also available at Betway - 10.00).
Colby Covington to Win by Submission: Even though Joaquin Buckley has never lost by submission, there's a first time for everything. Colby Covington has four submission wins to his name. Two of those submission wins came via a rear naked choke, and if Covington's cardio is a factor in the latter stages of this fight, an opportunity for him to take Buckley's back could present itself. (17.00 - Stake), (13.00 - Betway).
Colby Covington to Win by Decision: Colby Covington has 9 decision victories out of his 17 career wins. With this being the most common method of victory, getting odds of 4.50 (Stake), or 4.00 (Betway), seems like good value if you fancy Covington to win, given his outright odds are only 2.9 on Stake.
Prediction
Our final prediction for this fight is: Will the Fight Go the Distance? No (Best Odds Available at 2.00 on Betway).
Whilst Joaquin Buckley is riding the wave of all the momentum and activity, this is his first fight on the big stage (main event), and you never really know how fighters will take to the occasion. To add, strong rumours are circulating that Colby Covington will be walked out by his good friend Donald Trump this weekend; what more motivation does one need to get back into the winning column?
We know that Covington's cardio can hold up, and he's as tough as they come. But Buckley has incredible explosive striking. However, if he is dragged into deep waters and a wrestling contest, that is bound to deplete Buckley's gas tank. To conclude, we see this fight either ending early in favour of Buckley or ending late in favour of Covington.
Jake Staniland is a sports writer who excels in covering a wide range of sports: football, combat sports and the NFL - All three subjects are his lifelong passions.
Jake is a boyhood Sheffield United fan, which is often a curse that he thanks his family for. His favourite Blades player ever is Billy Sharp
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