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Houston Rockets vs Miami Heat Preview: Odds, Tips and Prediction

Date: Friday 22nd March 2025 Start time: 7 pm local time (Midnight BST) Venue: Kaseya Center, Miami, Florida Last meeting: December 29, 2024, Miami Heat 104-100 Houston Rockets The Houston Rockets travel to the Sunshine State to face off against the Miami Heat.

Henry Cheal
Henry Cheal

Last Updated: 2025-03-19

Chad Nagel

5 minutes read

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Karl-Anthony Towns and Mikal Bridges

Karl-Anthony Towns and Mikal Bridges//Getty Images

The Houston Rockets travel to the Sunshine State to face off against the Miami Heat. The Florida-based team have lost seven games in a row at the time of writing and are under threat from the franchises behind them as they all look to seal a play-in spot. On the flip side, the Rockets are in red-hot form and contesting for the second-seed position in the Western Conference. Which team will come out on top in Miami? 

SportsBoom is at the forefront of the action, producing a written preview about both organizations. We cover all the important details surrounding key players representing the Heat and the Rockets, respectively, before sharing more about the head-to-head records. We conclude this piece by sharing our valued bets, as well as offering our prediction. 

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Pre-Game Odds and Win Probability

  1. Miami Heat: 1/5 (1.20) – 83.3%

  2. Houston Rockets: 7/2 (4.50) – 22.2%

  3. Forecast odds – Betting available on 1Win closer to event

Head-to-Head Record

The Miami Heat and the Houston Rockets have played 75 times in regular season history, with the first match starting in the NBA back in 1988. Throughout that nearly 40-year period, this game is closely contested to this day, as the Miami Heat have the superior record and posted 42 wins.

While the Rockets have won 33 times, the Heat are the standout performers since 2019. The Heat have currently won nine games in a row against the Rockets. It has to be said that before this impressive run, both franchises had shared the same number of wins at 33 apiece. 

Last Five Matches

SeasonDateResult
2024/25 SeasonDecember 29, 2024Miami Heat 104-100 Houston Rockets
2023/24 SeasonApril 5, 2024Miami Heat 119-104 Houston Rockets
2023/24 SeasonJanuary 8, 2024Miami Heat 120-113 Houston Rockets
2022/23 SeasonFebruary 10, 2023Miami Heat 97-95 Houston Rockets
2022/23 SeasonDecember 15, 2022Miami Heat 111-108 Houston Rockets 
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How is the season so far for both teams?

Miami Heat

  • Record: 29-38
  • Home Form: 15-17
  • Road Form: 14-21

Despite our discovery that the Miami Heat have won nine games in a row against the Houston Rockets, the franchise has lost seven games in a row this season at the time of writing. The franchise is the highest seed in the East with the worst run of form, winning only two of their last ten games. Will the Heat turn their form around by prevailing for the tenth time in succession against the Rockets? 

Andrew Wiggins joined the side from the Golden State Warriors as a part of a trade deal package which saw the Heat departing ways with Jimmy Butler. The former first-round pick has featured in 11 games for the Heat, averaging 18.3 points and 4.2 rebounds per game, respectively. Wiggins is still adjusting to life in the south coast but is the second leader in points per game for the side. 

Present as ever on the other side of the court, Bam Adebayo is once again their standout operator in rebounding and regaining possession. Adebayo is propping up 9.9 rebounds per game, in addition to throwing 17.5 points. It has to be said though that Adebayo is averaging lower in both areas this season compared to last, but his versatility remains a key part of the Heat’s playstyle.

Houston Rockets

  • Record: 43-25
  • Home Form: 25-10
  • Road Form: 18-15

The Houston Rockets have won six games in a row and catapulted themselves to the second seed in the West, though only just. The franchise shares the same record as the Denver Nuggets and the Memphis Grizzlies, but it will be a tough test for the side to cement this winning form. The franchise has the third-best record in the league with the fewest defeats at home too. 

Alperen Sengun is an indispensable member of the organization as he is propping up great numbers once again. Sengun is only 22 years old yet has significant potential to improve on his all-round game. The Turkish star is averaging 19.2 points per game, in addition to a career-high of 10.5 rebounds per game, placing him seventh overall in the league. The Rockets star has made the most starts he has in a season, featuring in all but four games.

23-year-old Jalen Green continues to impress with his incredible consistency. He played every single game last season and has done the same this year, showing incredible athleticism. Stat-wise, he is averaging 21.3 points per game, as well as 4.6 rebounds per game. His shooting makes him the franchise leader for this season. 

Value Bets

  1. Bam Adebayo - Over 15 Points and Over 10 Rebounds: Bam Adebayo is our first value bet because he is a more than resourceful player for the team. His career averages of 12.5 points and 8.7 rebounds per game against the Rockets reflect this. In four of his last five meetings, he has posted double-doubles, therefore, we expect him to continue this streak. 

  2. Alperen Sengun - Over 15 Points and Over 10 Rebounds: We have selected Alperen Sengun as our second value bet and predict the same stat line. Sengun has career averages of 13.8 points and 8.3 rebounds per game, but we expect him to emulate his recent form against the Heat, producing an output of over 15 points and over 10 rebounds.

Prediction: Miami Heat to win

Despite their torrid time on the court as of late, SportsBoom concludes that the Miami Heat will win this one. The Heat are in truly unstoppable form against the Houston Rockets, therefore, their motivation to end their terrible form by winning a tenth consecutive game will be a key factor. 

Henry Cheal
Henry ChealSports Writer

Henry Cheal is a versatile freelance sports journalist with extensive experience in the industry. Henry has previously worked at the 2024 World Snooker Championship and earned a Multimedia Sports Journalism degree from UCFB in 2023.

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