NBA
New Orleans Pelicans vs Miami Heat Preview: Odds, Tips and Predictions
The New Orleans Pelicans travel to Florida on New Year’s Day to face the Miami Heat.
Jaime Jaquez Jr. and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope//Getty Images
The New Orleans Pelicans travel to Florida on New Year’s Day to face the Miami Heat. This matchup is expected to be heated as the bottom-seed team in the West hopes to string together a win over the Heat, who are currently seventh in the East. Will the Pelicans prevail for the sixth time this season, or will the Heat seal a crucial win to move up the table?
SportsBoom further explores the historical head-to-head results from this clash, their respective seasons and records, and our valued bets.
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Match Details: New Orleans Pelicans vs Miami Heat
Date: Wednesday 1st January 2025
Start time: 7:30 pm local time (12:30 am BST)
Venue: Kaseya Center, Miami, Florida, FL
Last meeting: March 22, 2024, New Orleans Pelicans 111-88 Miami Heat
Pre-Game Odds and Win Probability
Miami Heat: 2/5 (1.40) – 71.4%
New Orleans Pelicans: 11/5 (3.20) – 31.3%
Forecast Odds – Betting available on Stake closer to event
Head-to-Head Record
The New Orleans Pelicans and the Miami Heat are set to play their 48th regular season game in history, with the head-to-head record slightly favouring the Miami Heat. The Heat have produced 26 wins, while the Pelicans have won only on 21 occasions.
The Heat are the more successful team in their last ten meetings from the previous five years, as the Florida giants have won eight of the last ten fixtures. The Pelicans were victorious in their most recent game, which inevitably ended a seven-game winning streak from the Heat.
This will be the first meeting between both teams in the 2024/25 season. This game should be exciting, considering the high numbers produced by the winner of the previous five games.
Last Five Matches
| Season | Date | Result |
| 2023/24 Season | March 22, 2024 | New Orleans Pelicans 111-88 Miami Heat |
| 2023/24 Season | February 23, 2024 | Miami Heat 106-95 New Orleans Pelicans |
| 2022/23 Season | January 22, 2023 | Miami Heat 100-96 New Orleans Pelicans |
| 2022/23 Season | January 18, 2023 | Miami Heat 124-98 New Orleans Pelicans |
| 2021/22 Season | February 10, 2022 | Miami Heat 112-97 New Orleans Pelicans |
How is the season so far for both teams?
Miami Heat
- Record: 15-14
- Home Form: 9-5
- Road Form: 6-9
The Miami Heat’s 2024/25 campaign sees the organization slightly above .500, primarily due to their away form. The team are 6-9 away from their home in Florida but are 9-5 in front of their home crowd. The Eastern Conference from the fourth seed (occupied by their interstate rivals, the Orlando Magic) and the 12th seed, the Brooklyn Nets, are separated by six-game differences, highlighting the competitiveness of the Conference.
24-year-old Tyler Herro is averaging 23.9 points per game, 5.7 rebounds, and 5.1 assists this season, his best numbers since drafting with the Heat back in 2019. The point guard star has played a pivotal role in every department and posted a dramatic game-winner against interstate rivals the Orlando Magic within the last week. Herro played in roughly half of the games in the regular season last year after dealing with injuries, but this season has turned a corner and looks to be the organization's future.
In addition to Herro’s work in point accumulation and assisting his teammates, Bam Adebayo continues to show his superiority in regaining possession. He is averaging slightly lower than in previous seasons but posting roughly 9.9 rebounds per game, which is valuable to any team looking to capitalise on their opponent’s mistakes.
New Orleans Pelicans
- Record: 5-27
- Home Form: 4-13
- Road Form: 1-14
This fixture arrives at an awkward time for the New Orleans Pelicans due to multiple star names out of the running due to various injuries. The Pelicans have only won five games all season and one away from home, highlighting the team's misfortune in previous weeks due to losing their star players on multiple occasions.
Their leading points-per-game scorers are injured, and reports state that Brandon Ingram and Zion Williamson won’t be available until after this match. Their 2019 first-round overall pick, Williamson, has been missing from the roster since suffering an injury in the seventh game of the season and now appears to be on the verge of a potential trade from the organisation. Ingram, however, is as big of a miss to the team, considering the team is now on a nine-game losing streak since he picked up his injury.
As a result of these two resorting to watching on the sidelines, the Pelicans have heavily relied on Brandon Boston Jr to pick up the scraps. In his first three seasons in the NBA, the 23-year-old wasn’t gaining much court time with his previous team, the Los Angeles Clippers. Currently averaging only 11.8 points per game, Boston is the highest leading active player within their roster.
Value Bets
Tyler Herro: Over 20 Points, 3 Rebounds and 3 Assists: Our first value bet is on Heat player Herro, who we predict will score at least 15 points, have three assists, and have three rebounds. Although his previous record against the Pelicans shows him averaging only 14.1 points per game in his career. This season his overall game has improved, so we expect an enhanced scoring figure. In recent form, he has posted 20 points or higher in eight of his last ten matches.
Jalen Johnson and Jaime Jaquez Jr.//Getty Images
Bam Adebayo: Over 10 Points and 10 Rebounds: Adebayo averages slightly under his seasonal average in the all-time stats department against the Pelicans, producing only 8.9 rebounds. Considering the opponent’s injury struggles, the realistic expectation should see him reach double figures. He has only posted 10 rebounds once in his previous four games, but at the start of December, he posted 10, 12, 13, and 16 rebounds within a week-long stretch, showing his true talent and capabilities.
Prediction: Miami Heat to Win
It’s no surprise that SportsBoom concludes that the Heat will win this game, given the lack of weapons the Pelicans have available to them, considering all the injuries to their biggest stars. The Heat will reach double digits in home wins and make up for their most recent defeat to the seed above them in the league, the Atlanta Hawks. The Pelicans are in an extremely tough situation on where to turn at a crucial period in the season, considering the turnaround of games at Christmas and the festive term.
Henry Cheal is a versatile freelance sports journalist with extensive experience in the industry. Henry has previously worked at the 2024 World Snooker Championship and earned a Multimedia Sports Journalism degree from UCFB in 2023.
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