NFL
Atlanta Falcons vs Carolina Panthers Preview: Odds, Tips and Prediction
The Falcons are eyeing a division title with a win over the Panthers in Week 18. A shaky season has led to a must-win game, with playoff hopes riding on this match. The Panthers, already out of contention, look to play spoiler. Get the latest odds, betting tips, and key players to watch.
Atlanta Falcons v Carolina Panthers//Getty Images
The NFC South is a wild ride, and the Falcons are still in the race. After a rough loss to the Commanders, Atlanta heads into Week 18 with everything on the line.
Here’s the deal: Beat the Panthers this Sunday (Jan. 5, 1 p.m. ET on CBS), hope the Saints take down the Bucs, and Atlanta claims its first division title since 2016—and punches its playoff ticket for the first time since 2017. Easy, right?
The Falcons crushed Carolina 38-20 in Week 6, but this time, it’s bigger. Atlanta’s been shaky lately (2-2 in their last four), but the Panthers? They’ve dropped five or six and are just here to play spoiler.
Feeling the hype? Time to hit those NFL betting platforms for the latest odds and game-day action. Week 18’s bringing the heat, and it’s Falcons or bust.
Atlanta Falcons vs Carolina Panthers at Atlanta match details
Kickoff Time: 01:00 PM ET
Location: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta
Last meeting: Atlanta Falcons 38-20 Carolina Panthers (Oct. 14, 2024 | NFL)
Atlanta Falcons vs Carolina Panthers Odds and Win Probability
The NFC South finale is here, and its crunch time. The Atlanta Falcons host the Carolina Panthers this Sunday at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in a showdown packed with playoff stakes. With the Falcons needing a win and some help from the Saints to claim their first division title since 2016, the odds are buzzing.
Pre-Game Odds and Win Probability
- Atlanta Falcons: 27/100 (1.27) - 79% chance to win
- Carolina Panthers: 16/5 (4.20) - 21% chance to win
*Odds courtesy of Stake, subject to change
Atlanta Falcons vs Carolina Panthers Head-to-Head Record
The Falcons and Panthers have shared some crazy clashes, with Atlanta holding the upper hand. In their last five meetings, Atlanta leads 3-2, including a convincing 38-20 win on October 14, 2024. Here’s the breakdown:
Last Five Meetings (NFL)
14/10/24: Atlanta Falcons 38-20 Carolina Panthers
17/12/23: Atlanta Falcons 7-9 Carolina Panthers
20/09/23: Atlanta Falcons 24-10 Carolina Panthers
11/11/22: Atlanta Falcons 15-25 Carolina Panthers
30/10/22: Atlanta Falcons 37-34 Carolina Panthers
Atlanta Falcons: Current Form
The Falcons’ season has been one helluva ride, and their recent streak screams inconsistency. Sitting at 6-5 before the bye, Atlanta looked like a team on the rise. Then came a string of stumbles against the Steelers, Chiefs, and more, followed by a spark of hope with wins over the Raiders and Giants. But those wins faded fast with back-to-back losses to the Chargers and Vikings.
Last week’s showdown against the Commanders? Heartbreaker. Atlanta jumped out to a 17-7 halftime lead, but the second half was a mess. Tied at the end of regulation, the Falcons fell short in OT, losing 30-24. Michael Penix threw for 223 yards, a TD, and a pick. Bijan Robinson stayed electric with 90 rushing yards and two scores, while Drake London and Kyle Pitts put up solid numbers through the air.
This season, Atlanta’s putting up 21.9 points per game but giving up 23.7—definitely not the winning formula. And let’s not ignore those 18 interceptions against 19 passing touchdowns. Yeah, the math doesn’t look great.
Key Players to Watch
- Bijan Robinson
The Falcons’ rookie RB is the engine of their offense. With 86+ rushing yards in seven of the last eight games as favorites and touchdowns in four straight games against NFC opponents, Robinson is a consistent threat. - Michael Penix
The QB has shown flashes of brilliance but needs to limit turnovers. Against the Commanders, his efficiency kept Atlanta in the game. Penix must deliver precision in high-pressure moments. - Kyle Pitts
The star tight end has been a reliable option, especially against the Panthers, recording 28+ receiving yards in six straight games. Pitts’ red-zone presence could be the difference-maker.
Home Team News
It was all hugs and high-fives before the Atlanta Falcons faced the Washington Commanders on Sunday Night Football — but when the final whistle blew, it was Commanders head coach Dan Quinn who was smiling. Quinn’s squad secured a 30-24 overtime win, leaving the Falcons (8-8) with just a 13% chance to make the playoffs, according to The Athletic's projections.
Quinn and Falcons coach Raheem Morris go way back. Quinn brought Morris onto his staff when he became Atlanta’s head coach in 2015. Morris stayed with the team throughout Quinn’s tenure, wearing multiple hats — from assistant head coach to defensive coordinator, and even stepping in as interim head coach in 2020. Despite the competition, their friendship remains strong.
But on Sunday, Quinn got the better of Morris. The Commanders’ rookie QB, Jayden Daniels, was the star of the night. He turned up the heat in the second half, rushing for 103 yards, and added another 24 yards in overtime to help his team clinch the win. By the end of the game, Daniels had a career-high 127 rushing yards.
“Some things Daniels does, you just can’t put on a card,” Quinn remarked after the game. Daniels' dynamic play turned the tide, even though Atlanta’s defense sacked him five times. “My hat’s off to him,” Morris said Monday. “He created angles that most guys can’t. You’ve seen it with Lamar (Jackson), and Jayden’s got those same traits.”
Despite the loss, Morris praised his team’s effort. The Falcons gave everything they had, but Daniels’ late-game magic was too much. In the end, Quinn’s message was clear: it wasn’t about mistakes, it was about facing a rare talent who can flip the script when it counts.
Carolina Panthers: Current Form
The Panthers are having a rough go of it lately. They snagged just one win in their first eight games (shoutout to the Raiders for being that one). A couple of wins over the Saints and Giants before the bye gave a glimmer of hope, but since then? Back-to-back Ls against the Chiefs, Bucs, Eagles, and Cowboys, with only a small bounce-back against Arizona.
Sunday against Tampa Bay was brutal. Carolina went into the break down 27-14, and stuff just unraveled. The Bucs dominated the second half 21-0, turning it into a 48-14 beatdown. Bryce Young put up 203 yards and two touchdowns (solid, not spectacular). The run game was nonexistent, with Raheem Blackshear managing only 20 yards. The lone bright spot? Adam Thielen, doing Adam Thielen things—five catches, 110 yards, and two scores.
This season, the Panthers are averaging just 18.6 points per game while giving up a painful 31.0. The passing game shows flashes (19 TDs), but those 15 picks? Yikes. And the run game at 107.7 yards per game? Not cutting it.
Key Players to Watch
- Bryce Young
The rookie QB has shown glimpses of brilliance but needs consistency. With five games of 17+ rushing yards as an underdog, Young’s mobility could be the X-factor Carolina desperately needs. - Adam Thielen
Thielen’s still got it. He’s scored in three straight games as an underdog on the East Coast and leads this offense with his clutch grabs and veteran savvy. - Xavier Legette
A dual-threat weapon, Legette has 39+ combined rushing and receiving yards in five of his last six appearances. He’s a wildcard who can break open plays.
Away Team News
Missing Chuba Hubbard in Week 17? Yeah, the Panthers definitely felt that one. The guy’s been a beast this season — running hard, showing patience, and carrying the load like a true workhorse. But after landing on injured reserve, his season got cut short. The silver lining? Hubbard’s locked in for the future with a four-year extension, so he’s sticking around.
Coach Dave Canales dropped a solid update, saying Hubbard will be out for about two to four weeks. It’s nothing serious, just a precaution, and with the Panthers already out of playoff contention, it makes total sense to let him rest up. "He’ll be good to go when we kick off prep for 2025," Canales said.
For Panthers fans, this was a much-needed sigh of relief. With not a whole lot to cheer for this season, Hubbard’s breakout play has been one of the few bright spots. Now the focus shifts to next year. Carolina’s backfield could look a little different, with rookie Jonathon Brooks recovering from a torn ACL and Miles Sanders possibly on his way out (hello, cap space). But Hubbard? He’s the guy moving forward.
So, yeah, Hubbard might be chilling for the last couple of games, but the future's bright. He’s earned a little time off, and when he’s back in 2025, expect him to tear it up again. Panthers fans have something to look forward to once this guy’s back at full strength.
Suggested Bets
Falcons to Win (Moneyline): Atlanta is a heavy favorite, and with the Panthers losing five of their last six, it’s a safe pick
Under 48.5 Total Points: Both teams lean on defensive strengths, and with SportsBoom predicting a 55% chance the total stays under, this bet has solid value.
Panthers +7.5 Spread: Carolina’s spread history and the Falcons’ occasional inconsistency suggest the Panthers could cover here.
It’s the final stretch for both teams, but with little to play for in the standings, this game is all about pride and future plans. The Atlanta Falcons (8-8) and Carolina Panthers (6-9) are heading into the game with key storylines – the Falcons battling for a wild card spot and the Panthers testing out their youth for 2025. But let’s talk about the real game plan here: the value bets.
Value Bets
Chuba Hubbard – Anytime TD Scorer: With Hubbard sidelined for the season, it’s all eyes on the Panthers' backfield. But here’s the kicker — Atlanta’s defense has been giving up 20+ rushing touchdowns this season, ranking near the bottom in rush defense (22.4 PPG allowed). Carolina could lean on their backup running backs to get the job done. Hubbard had been the go-to, and though he's out, his absence might make the team run the ball even more. Keep an eye on the next man up to hit paydirt.
Under 48.5 Total Points: Both teams have been struggling to put up big numbers in recent weeks. Atlanta's offense has been hit or miss, and with the Panthers’ defense still holding its ground, this matchup looks like a battle of field goals. Carolina’s games have averaged 48 points or less in four of their last five outings. This one feels like it’s going to be a low-scoring grind.
Jayden Daniels – Over 80 Rushing Yards: Speaking of the Falcons’ struggle against mobile QBs, Jayden Daniels might be primed to put up another big rushing day. After a career-high 127 rushing yards against Atlanta’s defense, Daniels is in the perfect spot to capitalize on the Falcons' inability to shut down dual-threat quarterbacks. With a solid ground game on the horizon, he’s a legit bet to hit the over.
Top Scorers/Players For Both Teams
The Atlanta Falcons are back in the hunt, but their playoff dreams are hanging by a thread. After a tough overtime loss to the Washington Commanders (30-24), their playoff chances are down to just 13%.
Falcons head coach Raheem Morris shared a heartfelt hug with former mentor Dan Quinn before the game, a reminder of their deep ties. But despite sacking Commanders QB Jayden Daniels five times, it was Daniels' second-half surge, rushing for 103 yards and leading a comeback, that left the Falcons in the dust.
Now, as the Falcons prepare to take on the Carolina Panthers, they’ll need a big game from their top players to stay in the playoff race. Wide receiver Drake London has been a constant bright spot for Atlanta, and running back Bijan Robinson has continued to show why he’s a future star. Robinson’s elusiveness and vision will be crucial as the Falcons attempt to balance their offense. But the Panthers' defense isn’t to be underestimated.
Speaking of the Panthers, they've had their own set of challenges. Chuba Hubbard’s absence has left a massive void in the backfield. The running back was placed on IR after a solid season, and while his injury isn't serious, the Panthers have had to scramble to fill the gap.
Coach Dave Canales confirmed Hubbard's recovery timeline, assuring fans that he'll be ready for 2025. In the meantime, veteran Miles Sanders could play a pivotal role. Expect Sanders to be a major factor in this game as Carolina fights for pride.
With the Panthers not playing for anything other than pride, expect them to be unpredictable. Rookie Jonathon Brooks, battling his recovery, is another factor to watch. But for now, the Panthers will rely heavily on their remaining offensive weapons like Sanders and Hubbard’s eventual return.
In this matchup, the Falcons are the favorites, but the Panthers might just surprise with a standout performance from their remaining playmakers. As Atlanta’s playoff hopes are on the line, expect a tense and tightly contested showdown.
Prediction: Falcons to Win
Here’s the deal: The Falcons have to win, and they know it. Their playoff hopes are still alive, but only if they take care of business against a Panthers team that’s already checked out. After a meh showing against Washington (337 yards, 23 first downs), Atlanta can’t afford another dud.
Meanwhile, the Panthers are in full rebuild mode, averaging just 204 yards in their last blowout loss. With everything on the line, expect the Falcons to roll in this one, flexing their playoff potential and securing a solid win.
Predicted Final Score: Falcons 32, Panthers 21
Heena Singh is your go-to NFL writer with a knack for turning the gridiron’s biggest moments into must-read stories. She brings a unique mix of sharp insights and quirky vibes, breaking down every touchdown, fumble, and post-game drama like a pro. A die-hard fan of the Kansas City Chiefs (and yes, Patrick Mahomes is her guy), Heena knows how to keep football fans hooked.