NFL
Kansas City Chiefs vs Pittsburgh Steelers Preview: Odds, Tips and Prediction
Christmas Day brings a thrilling AFC showdown between the Kansas City Chiefs and Pittsburgh Steelers. Mahomes is locked in, leading the Chiefs with momentum, while the Steelers aim for an upset. Despite a strong defensive effort from Pittsburgh, Kansas City's offense and defense should dominate, making them favorites for this clash. Expect a tense game, but the Chiefs' firepower gives them the edge.
AFC Wild Card Playoffs - Pittsburgh Steelers v Kansas City Chiefs//Getty Images
The Kansas City Chiefs are set to tangle with the Pittsburgh Steelers on Christmas Day, and it’s giving Die Hard fans a run for their "best holiday drama" title. With 37 meetings since 1970, this rivalry’s got history. The Steelers may hold a 23-14 edge overall, but let’s face it, Patrick Mahomes has been writing his own script lately.
Mahomes has absolutely roasted the Steelers’ defense in his two regular-season matchups, racking up 554 yards and nine TDs. Add a playoff win in 2021 to that résumé, and Pittsburgh’s recent memories are more Home Alone chaos than holiday cheer.
Betting odds are looking tight, but this one’s sure to deliver fireworks. With the stakes this high, it’s the perfect time to check out the best NFL betting list offers.
Kansas City Chiefs vs Pittsburgh Steelers 25 December match details
Kickoff Time: 1:00 PM ET/10:00 AM PT
Location: Acrisure Stadium, Pennsylvania
Last meeting: Kansas City Chiefs 42-21 Pittsburgh Steelers (Jan. 16, 2022 | NFL)
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Odds and Betting Tips
Let’s get down to it, y’all: Week 17’s got a major showdown, and the Chiefs are ready to face the Steelers. If you’re thinking about throwing down some bets, here’s the scoop on the odds and predictions for this one:
Pre-Game Odds and Win Probability
Chiefs: 37/50 (1.71) - 69% chance to win
Steelers: 31/25 (2.24) - 31% chance to win
*Odds courtesy of Stake, subject to change
Suggested Bets
Chiefs to Win (Moneyline): The Chiefs, led by Mahomes, are looking like the team to beat here. With a 69% chance to win, they’re the heavy favorites, but at -230, you’re getting solid value.
Over 42.5 Total Points: Both teams have had their moments of scoring firepower, and with everything on the line, expect a high-energy game. The over’s got a slight edge here, so don’t sleep on it.
Steelers +3.7 Spread: Pittsburgh’s defense is tough, and they know how to make games close. Plus, the +6.5 spread’s got solid value for bettors who think the Steelers will keep it tight.
So, there you have it: Chiefs to win, the over on points, and the Steelers covering the spread are your best bets for this exciting matchup.
Kansas City Chiefs vs Pittsburgh Steelers Head-to-Head Record
The Chiefs have been straight-up owning the Steelers lately, winning three out of the last five, including a crazy playoff win in 2022. The Chiefs have dominated the Steelers in recent matchups, winning three of the last five, including a playoff win in 2022. Can Pittsburgh do a 180, or is it going to be another KC domination? Let’s see.
Last Five Meetings (NFL)
- 16/01/22: Kansas City Chiefs 42-21 Pittsburgh Steelers
- 26/12/21: Kansas City Chiefs 36-10 Pittsburgh Steelers
- 16/09/18: Kansas City Chiefs 42-37 Pittsburgh Steelers
- 15/10/17: Kansas City Chiefs 13-19 Pittsburgh Steelers
- 15/01/17: Kansas City Chiefs 16-18 Pittsburgh Steelers
Kansas City Chiefs: Current Form
The Chiefs? Ahan, they’re on a roll, racking up five straight wins and sitting pretty at 14-1 (6-1 on the road). They might not always look flashy, but they know how to get stuff done. Take their last win over the Texans — 27 points and an 8-point victory. Nothing crazy, but solid enough.
Patrick Mahomes was, well, Patrick Mahomes — 260 yards, a TD, and no interceptions. Kareem Hunt was a beast on the ground with 55 yards and a TD, while Xavier Worthy added 65 yards and another TD. Offensively, they’re cruising at 23.7 points per game (11th in the league).
But the real kicker, though? Their defense is straight-up nasty, giving up only 18.5 points per game and ranked 3rd overall. With Mahomes doing his thing and that defense showing up, the Chiefs are looking like a force that’s tough to stop.
Key Players to Watch
- Patrick Mahomes (QB): With his insane arm and knack for big plays, you never know when he’ll throw a bomb or pull off some wild play. Expect fireworks every time he touches the ball.
- Kareem Hunt (RB): Hunt’s been keeping stuff pretty balanced on-ground, grinding out tough yards and putting up TDs like there’s no tomorrow. If he keeps that fire lit, he’s going to make life easier for Mahomes and keep the defense on their heels.
- Chris Jones (DT): Jones is a straight-up nightmare for any QB. He’s got the power and speed to disrupt everything. Whether he’s blowing up plays in the backfield or pressuring the pocket, he’s always one step away from a game-changing moment.
Away Team News
The Chiefs are gearing up to face the Steelers on Christmas Day with a chance to lock in the No. 1 seed in the AFC. A win would secure a first-round bye and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs, putting Kansas City one step closer to their third straight Super Bowl win. The only thing on their minds? Mission: Super Bowl.
The first injury report is out, and while there aren’t any huge shocks, it’s still a tad concerning. DT Chris Jones (calf), offensive lineman D.J. Humphries (hamstring), and safety Chamarri Conner (concussion) all would’ve missed practice on Sunday, per the Chiefs' estimation. While Jones is expected to be good to go, Conner’s absence has forced some untested players like Joshua Williams and Nazeeh Johnson into key roles in the secondary.
Humphries has been sidelined since his signing, which has forced Joe Thuney to slide over to LT and Mike Caliendo to step in at left guard. With Jawaan Taylor also hurt, it looks like Wanya Morris may be the next man up at right tackle for the Steelers game. Not exactly the dream scenario, but it’s what the Chiefs might be dealing with.
Pittsburgh Steelers: Current Form
Having dropped two straight — one to the Eagles (27-13) and another to the Ravens (34-17) — they’ve got to be feeling the heat. The offense has been okay-ish, and the defense? Well, Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry did whatever they wanted. Russell Wilson put up solid numbers (217 yards, 2 TDs), but it just wasn’t enough. Jaylen Warren, the lead back, had a tough time on the ground with only 48 yards.
Right now, the Steelers are averaging 23.5 points a game, but their defense is giving up almost 20. They’ve got to turn it up if they want to stay in playoff contention. Offense is ranked 12th, but their D is sitting at 6th. It’s time to tighten up, especially if they want to hang with the Chiefs.
Key Players to Watch
- Russell Wilson (QB): Wilson’s been a bit hit or miss lately, but when he’s on, he can turn a game around in an instant. He’s got to find some consistency, though, to keep the offense moving, especially with the Chiefs lurking.
- T.J. Watt (OLB): Watt’s the guy on defense. He’s the one who can single-handedly wreck a game with a sack or forced fumble. If he can get pressure on Mahomes, it’ll be a huge win for the Steelers.
- Jaylen Warren (RB): Warren’s needs to step up. The ground game has been meh recently, but if Warren can break a few big ones, it’ll take pressure off Wilson and the passing game.
Home Team News
The Steelers took it easy on Sunday after their tough Saturday showdown with the Ravens, but the injury report is still looking a little rough. CB Joey Porter Jr. (knee) and WR Ben Skowronek (hip) won’t be practicing, and LB Tyler Matakevich (knee) is also sidelined. Both Porter and Skowronek took hits in the loss to Baltimore.
But HC Mike Tomlin isn’t counting anyone out just yet. “Some guys who didn’t play yesterday—Justin Fields, DeShon Elliott, Donte Jackson, George Pickens, and Larry Ogunjobi—all have a chance to suit up this week,” he alluded, keeping the door wide open for a comeback. However, Porter and Skowronek’s injuries are still being assessed, so their status remains up in the air.
On a brighter note, a few big names like Donte Jackson (back), DeShon Elliott (hamstring), Larry Ogunjobi (groin), and George Pickens (hamstring) were all listed as limited in Sunday’s report. But it’s still a question mark if Fields will be ready to go after that abdominal injury.
The Chiefs are all looking pretty healthy, with Patrick Mahomes fully practicing after his ankle scare. A few guys are limited, but nothing too serious for KC.
Chiefs vs Steelers Value Bets
The Chiefs are cruising towards a potential third straight Super Bowl, but the Steelers aren’t out of the race yet. Despite losing their top WR, George Pickens, the Steel City’s got a defense that could shake things up. Let’s break down the value bets for this clash:
Steelers to Cover +3.7 Spread: The Chiefs might be favorites here, but this is a prime spot for Mike Tomlin's squad to rally. With the Steelers' elite pass-rush (5th in the league) and their ability to force turnovers (leading the NFL with 2.1 per game), they could keep Mahomes under pressure. If they get to him like the Texans did, this game could be tighter than expected.
Isiah Pacheco to Rush Over 72.5 Yards: Pacheco’s been a key part of the Chiefs’ offensive firepower lately, and with the Steelers struggling against the run (ranking 22nd in rush defense), Pacheco has the potential to dominate. He’s back in action, and it’s clear the Chiefs plan to lean on him. Look for him to break off some big runs.
Steelers to Win by 1-6 Points (If Luck Favours): In a must-win game with a defense that can disrupt Mahomes, Pittsburgh might keep it close enough for a last-minute miracle. The Chiefs have allowed significant pressure, and with their injuries stacking up, a close win for the Steelers feels likely.
Kansas City Chiefs vs Pittsburgh Steelers Top Scorers/players for both teams
Alright, here we go: Chiefs are flexing that 23.7 PPG, with Mahomes pulling the strings and the defense locking things down (ranked 3rd, just saying). Mahomes has 3,608 yards, 23 TDs, and 11 INTs under his belt — he's out here making defenses sweat. Kareem Hunt’s doing his thing on the ground with 708 yards and 6 TDs, and Travis Kelce? He’s an absolute target machine with 739 yards and 2 TDs.
The Steelers are trying to get their groove back. Their defense is still elite (ranked 6th), but the offense has been hit or miss. Wilson’s been slinging it, but they've dropped two straight, including tough losses to the Eagles and Ravens. Najee Harris has been putting in work with 933 rushing yards, and George Pickens is showing out with 850 yards and 3 TDs.
Prediction: Chiefs 27-20 Steelers
With the Chiefs coming in hot with a 69% win probability, they’re the clear favorites for this matchup. Mahomes' playmaking ability and a top-tier defense will give them the edge over a Steelers team that’s been struggling offensively. While the Steelers' defense can keep it close, their inconsistent offense won’t be enough to hold off Kansas City's firepower.
Look for Mahomes to lead his team to a hard-fought win, and the Chiefs’ offense to shine in the second half.
Heena Singh is your go-to NFL writer with a knack for turning the gridiron’s biggest moments into must-read stories. She brings a unique mix of sharp insights and quirky vibes, breaking down every touchdown, fumble, and post-game drama like a pro. A die-hard fan of the Kansas City Chiefs (and yes, Patrick Mahomes is her guy), Heena knows how to keep football fans hooked.