NFL
New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills Preview: Odds, Tips and Prediction
The NFL just made Sunday a whole lot spicier by flexing the Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots game to 4:25 PM EST. Why the switch? The league’s all about showcasing fireworks, and Buffalo’s offense is ready to deliver.
James Cook and Josh Allen//Getty Images
The Bills are straight-up flexing this season like they’re prepping for a highlight reel, dropping 30+ points in eight straight games. Josh Allen? He’s throwing, running, and basically doing kitchen-sink-level work to keep that scoreboard lit up like a Christmas tree. New England’s offense, though, is about as reliable as a soggy paper towel — struggling to crack 25 points in any game this season. Rookie QB Drake Maye’s had a few wow moments, but facing Buffalo’s juggernaut offense feels like trying to take on a Marvel superhero army with a wooden spoon.
With Buffalo riding an offensive hot streak and New England just trying to stay competitive, this game promises some serious action. Expect big plays, fast moves, and plenty of scoreboard excitement. Check out the best NFL betting list offers.
New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills, December 22 match details
Kickoff Time: 4:25 p.m. EST
Venue: Highmark Stadium, NewYork
Last meeting: New England Patriots 21-27 Buffalo Bills (Dec. 21, 2023 | NFL)
Odds and Betting Tips
Week 16 is serving up a heavyweight clash between the Patriots and Bills, and the numbers are leaning hard in Buffalo’s corner like an unstoppable Thanos snap. Machine learning simulations ran 10,000 iterations, and here’s the lowdown: the Pats only have a 23% chance of a straight-up win, while the Bills are flexing a cool 77% chance of victory.
Pre-Game Odds and Win Probability: Buffalos Heavy Favorites
New England Patriots: 38/5 (8.60) - 23% chance to win
Buffalo Bills: 9/100 (1.09) - 77% chance to win
*Odds courtesy of Stake, subject to change
Betting Tips You Need to Consider
Patriots +14.5 Spread – New England’s defense might hang tough. With a spread of +14.5, this bet offers a decent cushion for Patriots backers.
Over 46.5 Total Points – Both teams can put up points. With explosive offensive potential, expect a game that could hit the over.
Bills Moneyline (-810) – Buffalo’s dominance (77% win probability) makes their moneyline a solid, albeit pricey, choice.
Buffalo looks strong on both offense and defense, but keep an eye on New England's surprising moments — they’ve pulled off shock wins before. This Week 16 battle promises intense action, so bet smart and keep it cool.
New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills: Head-to-Head Record
In their last five matchups, Buffalo flexed hard with four wins, including a 47-17 blowout back in January 2022. But New England struck back with a 29-25 win in October 2023. Don’t sleep; anything can happen here.
Last Five Meetings (NFL)
21/12/23: New England Patriots 21-27 Buffalo Bills
22/10/23: New England Patriots 29-25 Buffalo Bills
08/01/23: New England Patriots 23-23 Buffalo Bills
02/12/22: New England Patriots 10-24 Buffalo Bills
16/01/22: New England Patriots 17-47 Buffalo Bills
New England Patriots: Current Form
The Pats are battling a tough season with a rough 3-11 record and only 3 wins on the road. As they gear up to face the Buffs twice in the final three weeks, New England’s chance for a strong finish looks challenging, but not exactly impossible.
Historically, the Patriots had dominance over the Bills during the Tom Brady era (32-3 record against Buffalo). Since Brady’s departure, though, oh how the tables have turned! Since 2020, Buffalo holds a 7-2 advantage over New England.
Key Patriots like Kendrick Bourne continue to deliver, recording 29+ rushing and receiving yards in each of his seven matchups as an underdog. Meanwhile, rookie Drake Maye has shown resilience with 222+ passing yards in three consecutive Sunday games. Veteran Rhamondre Stevenson has also delivered, logging 140+ rushing yards in three of the last five games.
New England’s path forward demands consistency and standout performances from these key contributors.
Key Players to Watch
- Drake Maye
Drake Maye’s a gunslinger on the rise. In four out of the last five matchups, he crushed it with 200+ passing yards each game. If he can keep that streak alive, he’ll be New England’s secret weapon for turning the game on its head. - Rhamondre Stevenson
Stevenson is the kind of running back who brings the thunder. In three of the Patriots' last five underdog games, he piled up 140+ rushing yards. When things get gritty, he’s the guy who’ll fight for every yard, dragging defenders along the way. - Kendrick Bourne
Kendrick Bourne’s got that gritty edge every team needs. In seven appearances as an underdog against NFC teams, he’s consistently hit 29+ rushing and receiving yards. Whether it’s a tough catch or a quick run, Bourne delivers when New England needs it most.
Home Team News
If the Bills want to keep their Super Bowl dreams cruising like a Hollywood blockbuster sequel, they need a defense that’s tougher than a Rocky montage. That means locking down Greg Rousseau before another team swoops in with a bigger wallet.
Rousseau, that 2021 first-round dynamo, is becoming a nightmare on Buffalo’s defense. In 14 games this season, he’s racked up 46 tackles, 7.5 sacks, two forced fumbles, a fumble recovery, and two defended passes. SportsNaut’s Matt Johnson’s throwing out the idea that it’s time for Buffalo to drop a blockbuster contract: a four-year deal averaging around $23M per year. Pay the man, or watch your Super Bowl chances slip faster than a TikTok trend.
With a young, hungry defense and a city that loves grit, locking up Rousseau fits Buffalo’s style—tough, smart, and built to last. This offseason, expect the Bills to make a move that ensures their defense stays mean and lean for whatever challenges lie ahead.
Buffalo Bills: Current Form
Sitting at 11-3 and a perfect 6-0 at home, they’ve got that unstoppable vibe going. Their offense is a highlight reel. Their defense hits like a freight train — and winning feels like second nature.
Josh Allen is doing his thing as the QB beast: throwing bombs, making clutch runs, and generally just making defenses look silly. Meanwhile, James Cook is shredding defenses with some serious ground game muscle. And let’s not sleep on the team’s defense—these guys, with Greg Rousseau leading the sack party, bring the kind of pressure that makes QBs reconsider their life choices.
Buffalo’s team is about making plays, sticking to the game plan, and executing with that classic AFC East grit. With key wins and sharp performances, they’re the team you don’t want to see on your schedule.
Key Players to Watch
- Josh Allen
Allen’s the legit heart and soul of Buffalo’s offense (3,395 passing yards, 25 TDs). He’s a beast through the air and on-ground, turning every play into an adrenaline-packed moment. - James Cook
Cook is a freight train on the ground. With 828 rushing yards and 13 TDs, he’s a constant threat who powers through defenses, making sure Buffalo’s offense stays unstoppable. - Greg Rousseau
The Bills’ defensive nightmare. Rousseau brings relentless pressure with 7.5 sacks, breaking down QBs and forcing crucial mistakes. He’s the guy that turns defensive line chaos into game-changing moments.
Away Team News
Another tough break for the Patriots. A 30-17 loss to the Arizona Cardinals left New England with little to celebrate, and injuries are starting to pile up. The key worry? LB Christian Elliss, who looked solid before getting banged up late in the game. He tried to take on James Conner in a high-speed run-in but only managed a helmet touch. That led to a quick concussion check, but the good news is he came back for the onside kick attempt inside the two-minute warning.
This season’s linebacker group already took a hit with Ja’Whaun Bentley out with a torn pectoral muscle back in Week 2. Losing Elliss would’ve made things even messier. But for now, New England can take some relief that he managed to get back on the field.
All eyes will be on Wednesday’s first practice session at 1 p.m. ET, followed by the injury report a few hours later. With a big game against the Buffs set for Sunday at 4:25 p.m. ET, the Pats must patch up their defense fast and bring everything they’ve got to take on the AFC East champs.
Value Bets
Time to get your bets in — Patriots vs. Bills is shaping up to be a battle, and here’s where you’ll find some sweet value.
Josh Allen – Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns
Josh Allen’s been a beast this season, 25 TDs, 5 picks, and a cannon of an arm. The Patriots’ secondary is a bit shaky right now, and with Allen’s deep-ball potential, hitting 1.5 passing touchdowns is looking pretty likely. Time to ride the Bills' QB train.Rhamondre Stevenson – Over 80.5 Rushing Yards
Stevenson’s got grit. He’s put up 140+ rushing yards in three of New England's last five underdog games, showing he can deliver when it counts. With a hungry offensive line and a chance to pound the ball, Stevenson could easily hit that 80.5-yard mark.Kendrick Bourne – Anytime Touchdown Scorer
Bourne’s one of those clutch players. Mac Jones trusts him, and New England needs big moments. With solid odds, Bourne’s a high-reward bet to snag a touchdown when things get tight.Bet smart, stay sharp, and don’t sleep on these picks. The Pats might bring grit, but the Bills’ firepower could make things explosive. Good luck, and let’s get those wins!
Top Scorers/Players For Both Teams
If you’re gearing up for this AFC East clash, knowing who’s bringing the heat on both sides is key. Here’s the quick and dirty on the top players you need to keep your eyes on.
Buffalo Bills
- Josh Allen (QB): This guy’s a demon. 3,395 passing yards, 25 TDs, plus 484 rushing yards and 11 rushing TDs. A real dual-threat nightmare.
- James Cook (RB): The Bills’ ground game powerhouse with 828 rushing yards and 13 TDs. He keeps defenses honest.
- Khalil Shakir (WR): Reliable as they come – 71 catches, 774 yards, and 4 TDs. A key weapon in the passing game.
- Dalton Kincaid (TE): 409 receiving yards this season, adding more firepower to that aerial attack.
- Greg Rousseau (DE): Defensive menace with 7.5 sacks, making life miserable for opposing QBs.
New England Patriots
- Rhamondre Stevenson (RB): A serious ground threat, with 140+ rushing yards in three of their last five underdog games. Tough and consistent.
- Kendrick Bourne (WR): Clutch player who’s consistently put up 29+ rushing and receiving yards in all seven games as an underdog against NFC opponents.
- Drake Maye (QB): The young QB’s been throwing 222+ passing yards in the last three Sunday underdog games. Show’s got promise.
- K.J. Osborn (WR): A December standout, scoring touchdowns in three of his last four appearances as an underdog.
Prediction: Patriots 20-31 Bills
Let’s keep it real: the Patriots are going to have a tough time against the Bills. After running 10,000 game simulations, our model says New England’s got only a 23% chance of winning, while Buffalo’s sitting pretty at 77%.
Josh Allen’s throwing rockets and running wild with 3,395 passing yards, 25 TDs, and 484 rushing yards this season. Plus, the Bills’ defense brings serious heat with 32 sacks and 13 picks. The Patriots? Their best shot is Rhamondre Stevenson flexing on the ground, but overall, it’s going to take a miracle.
New England pulled off an iconic win in 2021, but since 2020, Buffalo’s had the upper hand with a 7-2 record. Looks like Buffalo will keep their roll going and take this one.
Heena Singh is your go-to NFL writer with a knack for turning the gridiron’s biggest moments into must-read stories. She brings a unique mix of sharp insights and quirky vibes, breaking down every touchdown, fumble, and post-game drama like a pro. A die-hard fan of the Kansas City Chiefs (and yes, Patrick Mahomes is her guy), Heena knows how to keep football fans hooked.