Rugby
Italy vs France Preview: Odds, Tips and Prediction
Venue: Stadio Olimpico Kickoff Time: 15:00 (UK Time) Italy have gone from being the whipping boys of the Six Nations to a team capable of earning valuable points and putting up a fight against all of their opponents. France was beaten last time out by England, and there is no doubt they will want to return to winning ways when they visit the Eternal City. The Pre-match betting odds from some of the best rugby betting sites, seem to suggest a blow-out, but you would be foolish to take Italy for granted.
Antoine Dupont of France//Getty Images
Pre-Game Odds and Win Probability
Home: 10/1 (11.0) – 9.1%
Draw: 49/1 (50.0) – 2%
Away: 7/100 (1.07) – 89.1%
Head-To-Head Record
Last three meetings
25/02/2024: France 13–13 Italy
06/10/2023: France 60-7 Italy
05/02/2023: Italy 24–29 France
Italy Current Form – LWLLW
Yes, you can say that Wales are going through a horrid time and that nobody really expected Italy to beat them last time out – but to do so would be wholly disrespectful to the Italians.
They have been playing fearless rugby, they stay in games, make it difficult for their opponent and are happy to play on the fringes. They have pace and power in their ranks, and they certainly are more than the whipping boys of this tournament.
Granted, however, they don’t play Wales here, but instead a wounded French outfit. Rugby betting sites seem to suggest Italy will welcome the attacking threat of the French and see a high-scoring affair, but the doggedness of an Italian defensive machine is something punters simply have to consider.
Key Players to Watch
- Ange Capuozzo: When you talk about space and pace, there is only one name from Italy which comes to mind. Ange Capuozzo has been incredible for his country. An elusive runner with the ball, he seems to carve open opponent’s defensive systems and create scoring opportunities for Italy at will.
- Michele Lamaro: Italy’s captain – and what a captian he has been. Leading from the front, he works hard for the entire game and prides himself on his ability to show a defensive prowess. A balanced rugby player who has aided immense value to the Italian side – keep an eye on him.
- Tommaso Allan: Italy’s general! He keeps the game ticking over and has been brilliant in attack. He seems to have the entire backline on a piece of string and his management of the game has been vital for Italian success.
Italy Team News
Louis Lynagh is out injured with a knee complication.
France Current Form – LWWWW
France dispatched Wales without too many hassles, but one wonders whether the price of a somewhat simple start to their Six Nations campaign results in a relaxed approach to their subsequent engagements.
They were horribly flat against England; they made more handling errors than we are used to seeing from a French side and failed to put the game to bed. Yes, the English were up for the encounter and took their chances well – but France cannot afford to let points slip in this fashion…especially not in this tournament.
France has an exhilarating attack, players like Damian Penaud elevate their attacking threat and he is coupled by the likes of Antoine Dupont at scrum half. It’s a surprise this side don’t absolutely demolish teams.
Key Players to Watch
- Antoine Dupont: Surely you didn’t think we would have a preview of the French threats and not include the likes of Antoine Dupont.
After securing an Olympic Gold Medal at the Paris games, France’s favourite son has returned to their 15-man national team and has immediately made a massive impact. His ability to drive the team forward, attack with varied and dynamic approaches as well as aid in the defensive channels, all make him one of the best players on the planet. - Louis Bielle-Biarrey: A youngster for France, Bielle-Biarrey has become one of the most dangerous wingers in Europe. His exceptional speed and agility all aid in creating a unit capable of defending the line and breaking the opposing line.
- Matthieu Jalibert: How good has he been this year so far? Jalibert got his chance after a red card to Romain Ntamack ruled the fly half out. There is a school of thought that Jalibert is better suited to the number 10 role, and we tend to agree! His ability to read the game and see his side progress up the field is second to none and he certainly allows the French attack to play with a renewed freedom.
France Team News
Romain Ntamack is suspended.
Suggested Bets
Our suggested bets for those who wants to bet on rugby are listed below.
France: The hosts will win this game, there is no doubt about that. They have a better attack and far more robust defensive system than their Italian counterparts. Back the home win with provident fund confidence. 7/100 (1.07) with BetWinner
Halftime/Fulltime (France/France): Back the hosts to lead at the halfway stage as well as at the final whistle. 6/25 (1.24) with Stake
France – 7.5: The French will need to prove their worth once more, especially after passing up the opportunity for points last week against England. Back them to get past the 8 point handicap. 1/10 (1.1) with Pinnacle.
Value Bets
Totals Over 45.5: Italy will not just roll over and give the French the game – especially not in front of their home fans. We expect a high-scoring game, back over 40.5 points here at generous odds. 21/50 (1.42) with Betway
Race to Ten Points (France): Back the French to start strong here. 1/10 (1.1) with 1xBet
First Points (Penalty): The French will want to make this as physical as possible and as quickly as possible. That means welcoming Italy to early phases of play and early breakdowns. Given the hosts’ propensity for ill-discipline on the ground, back the French to slot an early penalty here as a simple value option. 3/10 (1.3) with BetWinner.
Prediction: France
There can be no other outcome for this encounter. The French will know this is a game they simply have to bounce back at and once again show why they are a contender for the Six Nations title.
After their loss to England, the impending Irish clash will be the one they eye, but before they get there, they need to get past Italy, and get past them well.
Ryan Liberty is an experienced sports writer whose articles have featured in some of the biggest sports publications in South Africa. With a strong understanding of all major sports and an in-depth understanding of betting, Ryan consistently delivers insightful content. He's also known for his ability to break down complex topics into engaging, reader-friendly pieces.
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