Tennis
Mutua Madrid Open 2025 Preview: Odds, Tips & Prediction
Date: April 23-May 4, 2025 Venue: La Caja Magica, Madrid Competition: Men’s Singles Defending champion: Andrey Rublev One of the most eagerly-anticipated Masters events on the clay court swing, the Madrid Open is around the corner, and we can’t wait! Until 2009, the Madrid Open was staged on hard court before transitioning onto the red dirt at La Caja Magica which translates into English as “Magic Box”. Those wishing to bet on tennis won’t struggle to find pre-match odds, specials, and outrights advertised at leading sportsbooks throughout the tournament.
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Mutua Madrid Open - Day Thirteen/Getty Images
Andrey Rublev will have a target on his back going into the Madrid Open as the reigning champion, but a poor showing at the Monte Carlo Masters where he bowed at the last 16 to up-and-coming Frenchman Arthur Fils in straight sets (6-2, 6-3), doesn’t bode well.
Unsurprisingly, the Spaniards have dominated this event in more recent years. Home hopes will rest firmly on the shoulders of Carlos Alcaraz, who will be looking to add another Masters 1000 title to his collection. We have supplied some tennis betting tips to put you in the picture.
Pre-Tournament Odds and Win Probability
Events such as the Madrid Open always stirs up excitement among clay court enthusiasts.
We have gone through the leading betting sites with a fine toothcomb. We’ve unearthed a couple of players carrying the most favour as far as the pre-tournament betting odds are concerned.
- Carlos Alcaraz – 9/10 (1.90) – 52.6%
- Novak Djokovic – 11/2 (6.50) – 15.4%
- Odds courtesy of Stake, subject to change
Head-to-Head Record (Carlos Alcaraz vs Novak Djokovic)
To whet your appetite for the Madrid Open, we have assessed the head-to-head record of Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic, who are likely to reach the deep end of the tournament.
Alcaraz and Djokovic have both won the Madrid Open at least once. Understanding their head-to-head record should help sharpen your tennis betting strategies in terms of where to put your money.
Last five meetings
- January 21, 2025 (Australian Open quarter-final): Novak Djokovic beat Carlos Alcaraz 4-6, 6-4, 6-3, 6-4
- August 4, 2024 (Paris Olympics final): Novak Djokovic beat Carlos Alcaraz 7-6 (3) 7-6 (2)
- July 14, 2024: (Wimbledon final): Carlos Alcaraz beat Novak Djokovic 6-2, 6-2, 7-6 (4)
- November 18, 2023 (ATP Finals semi-final): Novak Djokovic beat Carlos Alcaraz 6-3, 6-2
- August 21, 2023: Cincinnati final): Novak Djokovic beat Carlos Alcaraz 5-7, 7-6 (7), 7-6 (4)
Player Form
As part of our tennis betting insights, we have reserved some space to discuss the form of a few players who could be in contention to lift the Madrid Open.
Some sites for tennis betting may also contain useful nuggets of information, such as stats on first serve and break points won for you to tap into.
Carlos Alcaraz
Champion in 2022 and 2023, Carlos Alcaraz is a man on a mission. The Spaniard can combine power with finesse and some superb deft touches around the court.
Alcaraz, who at the time of writing, boasts a 15-2 record in Madrid, is always keeping opponents guessing by throwing in stunning drop shots.
While he is currently third in the ATP Tour rankings, he is breathing down the neck of Alexander Zverev in second. Alcaraz relishes the clay, and we think he will be in the mix come the end of the tournament.
Novak Djokovic
Although he is in the autumn of his years, Novak Djokovic’s brilliance on clay is clear for all to see. His mental strength has been key to his longevity, and he’s a three-time winner of the Madrid Open.
He will be making his 13th appearance in the Spanish capital after first competing there in 2006, and he has a 30-9 record.
Whether he can go all the way once again remains to be seen, but he’s still defying time by getting to the latter stages of Masters 1000 events, as shown at the Miami Open where he reached the final before succumbing to Jakub Mensik.
Alexander Zverev
Also appearing on the Madrid Open roll of honour is German Alexander Zverev. The second of his titles arrived in 2021, but Zverev’s form has dipped since the Australian Open where he reached the final.
He hasn’t been at his swashbuckling best recently, and some critics have questioned whether he has been one of the worst World No.2’s of more recent times. It will be fascinating to see how he gets on, and if he can get into his stride, perhaps a semi-final spot might beckon.
Previous Madrid Open Winners
Below, we have listed the champions from the past 10 years at the Madrid Open:
- 2024 – Andrey Rublev
- 2023 – Carlos Alcaraz
- 2022 – Carlos Alcaraz
- 2021 – Alexander Zverev
- 2019 – Novak Djokovic
- 2018 – Alexander Zverev
- 2017 – Rafael Nadal
- 2016 – Novak Djokovic
- 2015 – Andy Murray
- 2014 - Rafael Nadal
Suggested Bets
The best betting sites for tennis will be abreast of key developments before and during any given Masters event.
They will also be well stocked with free tennis betting bonuses which will be worth latching onto to enrich your experience. Anyway, we have selected a couple of suggested bets for you to explore:
Carlos Alcaraz to win the Madrid Open: Alcaraz usually catches fire at the biggest events on the ATP Tour, and his record at the Madrid Open speaks for itself. He has everything in his locker, including deft drop shots, and his movement is exceptional. Madrid has been a happy stomping ground for him in the past, so we think he could come out on top here once again (7/5 with Betandyou)
Final to go to three sets: Ultimately, this will depend on who contests the final, but the showpiece occasion has often gone the distance, stretching to three sets. The fans who have paid good money will want to see a long final, and judging by what we have seen in recent years, the winner has been pushed to three sets (2/1 with N1Bet).
Arthur Fils to get to at least the quarter-final: After breaking into the world’s top 100 a couple of years ago, Arthur Fils has made big strides, and he’s a serious talent. Just 20 years old, he has reached the quarter-finals of all the Masters 1000 events he has participated in, and he has a destructive forehand. He came close to toppling Alcaraz before the Spaniard mounted a comeback to prevail in three sets. A special of Fils to reach the last eight in Madrid is a decent shout (3/1 with BC.Game)
Madrid Open Prediction: Carlos Alcaraz to win
The Madrid Open is always a fun stopping point on the Tour, and Carlos Alcaraz, at the time of writing is back up to World No.2, so he must feel like he’s on cloud nine!
Alcaraz’s game makes him a beast on clay. The way he recovered against Lorenzo Musetti to clinch his first Monte Carlo Masters title and sixth Masters trophy overall, was to be admired.
Of course, the likes of Alex de Minaur and Arthur Fils have bolstered their clay credentials in recent weeks, but they aren’t in the same league as Alcaraz who is the complete package. While we would love to see a serious challenge mounted, it’s hard to look past Alcaraz, and he’s our pick to walk away with the Madrid Open.
Charles Perrin is a highly experienced sports betting content writer with over six years of working with some of the leading sportsbooks in the UK, including bet365 and William Hill.