Tennis betting strategy guide
Discover essential tennis betting strategies to boost your winning chances by analyzing key factors like head-to-head records, current form, and playing surfaces. Learn live betting techniques, set betting insights, and how to manage your bankroll effectively for a successful tennis betting experience.
Tennis is one of the most popular sports to bet on and why wouldn’t it be? Taking place almost 52 weeks a year at events all around the world and with each game lasting roughly between an hour and a half and two hours when played as best-of-three sets, it’s perfect for wagering on at the best tennis betting sites.
But there’s a lot more to it than just Sportsbooks laying odds on who will win a particular match at the biggest tournaments. The best betting sites cover matches from the ATP, WTA and Challenger Tours, plus of course the Grand Slams, and offer hundreds of different betting markets with many also allowing you to watch the match through livestreaming.
Key Tennis Betting Strategies
Let’s look at what the best tennis betting strategy or strategies might be that give you the greatest chance when it comes to turning over a profit.
Match Winner Analysis
Given the vast majority of money bet on a tennis match is on the match winner, it makes sense to kick things off by considering some key factors to take into account when betting on who will emerge victorious from the match.
Head-to-Head Record
In 19 times Novak Djokovic played Gael Monfils, he beat him all 19 times.
Simply put, some players are suited to playing a particular opponent, others aren’t. Perhaps Monfils couldn’t read Djokovic’s serve in all those losses or struggled against Djokovic’s variations.
It’s also possible that having lost to a player so many times before, the losing player has lost belief they can ever beat them.
Current Form: Considering recent performance and fitness levels of both players
How well a certain player was playing three years ago is of somewhat limited relevance. A far better indicator is how well they’ve been playing recently.
So, if Carlos Alcaraz has won 14 matches in a row including being the victor of back-to-back tournaments, it’s obvious that he’s in far better form than Alex Zverev who has lost two of his last three matches and hasn’t won a tournament in the last 12 months despite a high ranking.
Fitness levels are important, too. A player carrying a slight injury or not having great stamina because they’ve been out injured for a long time are big handicaps, so should be considered as part of a good betting on tennis strategy.
Playing Surface
Playing on lightning-fast grass or slow clay are so different that they’re almost different sports.
A huge server with a great net game will benefit from playing on grass while a player who can almost always keep the ball in play, has high fitness levels for those long rallies and plays a good drop shot will be loving it on the clay.
Live Betting Strategies
A good live betting strategy is to bet on both players at odds-against if the opportunity arises. If you bet on Casper Ruud at odds of 3.0 pre-match against Jannik Sinner and then bet on Sinner in live betting when he’s a set down at odds of 3.0 for the same stake, you’re going to win irrespective of the final outcome.
Another decent tennis live betting strategy is to know who the slow starters are. If you know that a particular player is a bit sluggish at the start and often gets broken early before making up for it and improving, you’re better off backing them in live betting at bigger odds than what they were pre-match.
Other Strategies
And here are some other strategies to consider beyond the more obvious ones, if you’re looking to take your tennis betting to the next level.
Betting on set betting
Going back to the slow starter and it could pay to back an outsider to win the first set at decent odds knowing the slow starter often loses the first set.
Some players have a habit of doing it the hard way. If you know that Grigor Dimitrov almost never wins three set matches in straight sets, you might be better off backing him to win 2-1 at 3.5, than just winning outright at 1.9.
Lastly, if a match between Andrey Rublev and Daniil Medvedev at the US Open looks extremely close to call and that a marathon game could be on, it could pay to back both players to win 3-2 in sets at odds of around 7.0 as a clever tennis set betting strategy, rather than picking one or the other to win.
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Exploiting first-round advantages: Potential strategies for lower-ranked players in Grand Slams
Some players save their best for the Grand Slams where more ranking points and prize money are at stake, performing better than they normally do in regular WTA and ATP matches. If you can identify these lowly-ranked Grand Slam specialists, you may be onto something.
Then there’s the case of the high-ranked player who doesn’t want to be there. If a clay court specialist is playing at Wimbledon and hates the grass, they may be happy to pick up their first-round appearance cheque and not bother doing their best. This may mean that a much lower-ranked player giving 100% might have a better chance than the odds suggest against a demotivated and uncommitted one.
General Betting Best Practices
And let’s round things off with some last-minute bits of advice that apply to both betting in general and also, specifically, to tennis.
Bankroll Management
Firstly, don’t bet money that you can’t afford to lose. Secondly, every Sportsbook will have Responsible Gambling tools at your disposal that allow you to control how much as a total amount you’ve wagered a day, a week and a month, plus others that will allow you to keep tabs on how much you’ve lost over a certain period, or how much you deposited. Use those tools because they’ll help you.
Thirdly, don’t put all your eggs in one basket by betting your full bank on any one wager, however convinced you are that it’s going to win. If it goes wrong, you’re back down to zero. You’re far better off never risking more than about 20% on any one bet.
Avoiding Common Mistakes
If you’ve had a losing day so far, quit for the day rather than making things even worse by chasing losses. And obvious as it sounds, don’t let emotions get the better of you by betting on personal favourites. You’re much better off adopting an impartial approach where you bet based on value prices.
Staying Informed
Statistics, rankings and head-to-head records are extremely useful as discussed already but even they don’t tell the full story.
If you’re going to take tennis betting seriously, you need to go the extra mile and be up to date with other non-statistical factors.
That includes knowing whether a player is carrying an injury that may hamper them or even whether there are things going on in the player’s personal life that can have an adverse effect on their performances. Like going through a break-up or divorce, battling some sort of addiction, or suffering the loss of a loved one.
All these things could mean they’re not at 100% and could give their opponent an edge. The better informed you are, the more likely you are to succeed.